“Dr. Doom”: Italien ist pleite

Freunde nennen mich zwar auch “Dr. Doom”, aber ich bin natürlich nicht so berühmt wie Nouriel Roubini, der die Finanzkrise (auch) vorhergesehen hat, dies jedoch damals lauter verkünden konnte als ich. Nun äußert er sich im Telegraph und sagt das Offensichtliche: dass Italien pleite ist.

  • I am very worried about the new Italian government. Things are going to worsen and the debt dynamics may become unsustainable, Professor Nouriel Roubini said. We’re in a very dangerous situation, he continued, speaking at the Ambrosetti forum on world economics and geopolitics at Lake Como.” – bto: Für diese Erkenntnis muss man allerdings auch kein Professor sein …
  • “Professor Roubini said the European Central Bank will be halting quantitative easing by the end of the year, removing a crucial buyer of Italian bonds. This comes at a time when US rates are ratcheting up fast and the era of abundant liquidity is coming to an end. They have promised the moon and even if they only do a fraction of what they say, risk spreads will rise and eventually there will be a reckoning, he said, warning that any Italian crisis would pose a systemic threat to the eurozone itself.” – bto: Darum geht es letztlich. Italien zeigt (erneut), dass das politische Konstrukt Euro nicht funktionieren kann.
  • “Prof Roubini (…) said Donald Trump’s enormous fiscal blitz and his $1 trillion (£772bn) deficits at the top of the economic cycle had bought a short-term boom – at great long-term cost – but it is a sugar rush effect. Asset markets will roll over next year and the US economy itself will hit the wall in 2020, with global consequences.” – bto: Ich denke, dass China uns viel eher Probleme bereiten wird.
  • “Meanwhile the US Federal Reserve will be tightening hard to head off incipient inflation, pushing up the Fed Funds rate rapidly to 3.5pc. This is a disaster in the making for emerging markets with large dollar debts and already under severe stress. The ECB and the Bank of Japan are effectively holding down US long-term rates at the moment through globalised QE but this too is coming to an end. It is going to push US bond yields and tighten financial conditions, he said.” – bto: Wir haben einen Rückgang der globalen Überschussliquidität. Und damit braut sich an den Finanzmärkten und in der Realwirtschaft etwas zusammen.
  • “Prof Roubini describes it as a perfect storm for the US, China, and emerging markets, with a fragile Europe caught in the violent crosswinds.” – bto: “fragil”, weil die EU auf ganzer Linie versagt hat, die Eurozone zu sanieren.

Und dann kommt eine Prognose, von der ich annehme und hoffe, dass sie nicht eintritt: “Such an outcome would be intolerable for President Trump. So what is he going to do? He will attack the Fed. He will find a foreign policy crisis. He can’t attack China because it is too big, so he will attack Iran and that will lead to a stagflationary shock, he said.”

The Telegraph: “Italy teetering in ‘dangerous situation’ as debt lurches out of control, warns ‘Dr Doom'”, 8. September 2018