Rezession und Brexit treffen die Eurozone hart

Ambroise Evans-Pritchard wirft erneut einen Blick auf die fragile Eurozone in einem zunehmend unsicheren Umfeld. In diesem Zusammenhang komme auch ich zu Wort:

  • “The eurozone faces (…) is structurally defenceless as the world slides into recession. This will not be an ordinary downturn because central banks no longer have the instruments to fight it. (So remains the risk) of a no-deal Brexit (and) he US economy (…) is now crumbling too. The yield curve is deeply inverted. Consumer sentiment has dropped to a seven-year low. The ISM manufacturing index has tipped into contraction. Export orders are the lowest since April 2009.” – bto: Es ist unstrittig, dass wir es mit einer deutlichen Abkühlung der Weltwirtschaft zu tun haben und Brexit so oder so ein Risiko darstellt.
  • “The eurozone (…) is paying the price for its chronic reliance on global demand to keep afloat. It is also the chief casualty of Donald Trump’s trade wars. Chinese goods that are shut out of the US market are being diverted into Europe. The more that Beijing devalues the yuan, the worse it gets.” – bto: Der immer wieder besprochene Export der Deflation findet hier statt.
  • “There is much talk of an imminent ECB rescue package. But Frankfurt has already reached the ‘reversal’ threshold where further rate cuts turn contractionary. They hurt banks. They lead to a rise in ‘precautionary’ savings as household puts aside more money.” – bto: wie ebenfalls schon diskutiert. Wir haben es in der Tat mit einer Liquiditätsfalle der extremsten Art zu tun.
  • “(…) inflation expectations are crashing faster than the ECB can possibly cut rates. The real cost of borrowing is rising. (…) Yields on five-year German Bunds have dropped to minus 0.93pc. The entire sovereign debt structure of Germany is trading at negative rates, with France close behind. Even if the ECB does relaunch QE next week there is no further yield compression for the taking.” – bto: Wie denn auch, denn billiges Geld allein ist kein Grund, zu investieren.
  • “Wicksellians accuse central banks of pulling the natural rate of interest ever lower with each cycle until it cannot go any lower. Under this ‘intertemporal’ hypothesis – advanced in different ways by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) and by Bernard Connolly, the high priest of eurosceptic theory – the central banks have been stealing prosperity from the future for the last quarter century. Eventually the future catches up with them.” – bto: Das sehe ich bekanntlich genauso. Wir haben uns mit der asymmetrischen Reaktion in die Falle geführt.
  • “The asymmetric reflex of letting asset bubbles run but always intervening to cushion the bust itself promotes the slide deeper into this swamp. It has blocked the Schumpeterian cleansing of creative destruction. This has kept ‘zombie companies’ alive and suppressed productivity; and it has led to a debt trap. Global liabilities have reached 332pc of GDP.” – bto: Aber wir haben noch viel Luft, bis wir alle auf japanischem Niveau liegen …
  • “(…) Europe’s political elites have gone against the grain of economic anthropology, tried to conjure away the North-South chasm, imposed fiscal straitjacket that has no founding in economic science, and have driven their economies into a deflation quagmire from which there is no return. The denouement will be an Italian debt default and an ugly chain-reaction.” – bto: was natürlich verstärkt wird durch die Demografie und die ohnehin immer geringeren Produktivitätszuwächse.
  • “A report three years ago by a group of eminent economists for the Delors Institute warned that the eurozone will remain unworkable unless it embraces some form of fiscal union and debt pooling. (…) France’s finance minister, Bruno Lemaire, has repeated these warnings. ‘If there was a new financial and economic crisis tomorrow, the eurozone could not respond. Either we get a eurozone budget or there will eventually be no euro at all,’ he said.” – bto: Das ist natürlich Quatsch, wie ich damals bei der Diskussion des Papiers gezeigt habe. Wir wissen, dass es eben nicht möglich ist, mit staatlichen Transfers auszugleichen. Es wären so gigantische Mittel erforderlich, die haben wir gar nicht.
  • Vor allem, weil der, der theoretisch alles bezahlen sollte, schwächelt: It is a perilous moment for Germany. The Wirtschaftswunder faces two structural shocks: it has fallen behind in digital technology; it made a bad bet on diesel cars and has been left behind in the battery race for electric vehicles. Volkswagen’s chief fears that the German car industry could go the way of Coventry within a decade.” – bto: Und wir haben nicht vorgesorgt, wie wir alle wissen.
  • “Daniel Stelter, author of a best-selling critique of the German model called Fairy Tale of a Rich Country, said Berlin is drifting blindly towards a no-deal. ‘The assumption and hope is that ›crazy Boris‹ will be expelled and someone else in the UK will‘ act responsibly’ and stop Brexit. No-one is questioning the EU negotiation strategy and everyone wants to make sure that the British don’t benefit from the club without being a member,’ he said.” – bto: Treue Leser dieser Seiten kennen meine Haltung zu dem Thema. Es ist unverantwortlich, wie die deutsche Regierung hier handelt.
  • “Business is becoming alarmed for the first time but there is little debate in German political circles about the scale of the threat. ‘So they might well stumble into a Brexit-crisis assuming it does not matter,’ he said.”
  • “I have no doubt that Britain would be transformed by that trauma. But so would Europe. It would it bring the eurozone’s simmering pathologies to the boil. It would test the low political pain-threshold of a union split between debtors and creditors, each deeply mistrustful of the other.” – bto: Und da hilft auch das Geld der EZB nicht mehr.
  • Britain would suffer the bigger economic shock but it would also have the institutional levers to defend itself quickly. It would let rip with fiscal stimulus. The eurozone would be hamstrung by the Stability Pact, the Fiscal Compact, and debt brakes imposed on everybody else by Germany. Automatic stabilizers would be the first line of defence. Budget stimulus would trickle out, too little, too late. European fiscal paralysis would match European monetary paralysis. The currency bloc would disintegrate.” – bto: Wenn das so käme, hätten wir allerdings ein weltweites Chaos an den Märkten.

→ (Anmeldung erforderlich): “The double shock of global recession and a no-deal Brexit may be more than Europe can withstand”, 4. September 2019