Bekannt, aber oft verdrängt, die Lage in Italien: ein Land, das sich wohl nur schwer im Euro halten lassen wird. Zunächst das reale BIP/Kopf:
Quelle: The Telegraph
- „The (…) immediate danger is Italy. The European Commission slashed its growth outlook for the country to 0.2pc in 2019 on Thursday, down from 1.2pc in November. (…) The sharp revision of Italy’s figures pushes up the implied budget deficit to well over 2.5pc of GDP. (…) The commission forecast is still too high – I think growth will be minus 0.2pc (…).“ – bto: Das hält das Land nicht mehr lange durch.
- „The risk spread on Italian 10-year bonds jumped 13 basis points to 286 on Thursday, but is still within the trading range seen since May. Global fixed income funds view the enticing return on Italian debt as a worthwhile risk at a time when more than $9 trillion of bonds worldwide are trading at negative yields, the highest since early 2017. Yet the global deflationary force that lies behind this is double-edged for Italy, as they lower the nominal GDP growth and play havoc with the country’s fragile debt dynamics.“ – bto: und letztlich nicht nur im Falle Italiens, sondern aller hoch verschuldeten Länder.
- „The International Monetary Fund warned this week in its Article IV health check that Italy risks a fresh debt crisis that could ‘push global markets into uncharted territory’. The trigger could be a downgrade to junk status by the rating agencies. The country has to finance or roll over €400bn of debt in 2019. That is twice the entire GDP of Greece. The IMF said banks may have trouble accessing the wholesale capital markets, forcing them to deleverage and therefore to starve the economy of credit.“ – bto: Deshalb sind private Kapitalgeber so zurückhaltend.
- „In an astonishing detail, the report said productivity levels in Italy’s non-tradable sector had fallen by 16pc since 1996. It is as if the country is slipping back into an economic dark age. Per capita income has dropped by 4pc over the last two decades. Almost 160,000 people are leaving the country each year, (…) The workforce is contracting at a frightening pace.“ – bto: Das Bild zur Produktivität ist grausam, aber auch bei uns nicht wirklich berauschend.
- „This makes it even harder to restore the debt trajectory back to a sustainable path. Some economists say the only way to break out of this perennial trap is for Italy to leave the euro, devalue by 30pc, and restructure its debts in an epic jubilee. This would be a traumatic event for the whole world.“ – bto: Und das könnte die größte Finanzkrise der Weltgeschichte auslösen.