Bekanntlich steckt Italien in einer tiefen Krise, einer Krise, die das Potenzial hat, den Euro zu zerstören. Bekannt, aber dennoch lohnt es sich, das Szenario nochmal durchzuspielen. Genau das macht Roger Bootle von CAPITAL ECONOMICS, der schon vor Jahren einen Vorschlag gemacht hat, wie man den Euro möglichst friktionslos auflösen könnte. Bei uns ist ja schon der Gedanke verboten.
- “Italy is in recession. Or rather, in another recession, for this follows similar phases in 2008, 2011 and 2012. (…) Although we have got used to weak economic performance from Italy, for much of the post-war period Italy grew rapidly. Since (the Euros) formation, Italy has grown by only 9pc. By contrast, the poor old UK, self-excluded from the benefits of the single currency, has grown by 44pc.” – bto: Das liegt natürlich nicht nur am Euro.
- “(…) until recently there was hope. (…) It may well have been an uncomfortable route, but austerity and “internal devaluation” were supposed to make Italy competitive while also improving the public finances. After all, Spain has achieved an impressive turnaround.” – bto: Man kann aber die hohen Schulden sonst nicht stemmen.
- “(…) for a long time the Italian public was particularly enthusiastic about the EU and its plans for integration. Resentment of the EU (and Germany in particular) is a relatively new phenomenon. Over recent years, the recovery of the world economy, encompassing the eurozone, gave hope that the rising tide would float even Italy’s beached boats. And indeed from 2015 to 2017 there was a mild recovery and unemployment fell back.” – bto: Es ist und bleibt natürlich ein viel komplexeres Problem, aber es bietet sich an, im Euro und der EU zunehmend die Ursache zu sehen.
- “It looks as though the world economy is weakening decisively. (…) Italy is closely dependent upon the health of the world economy, with over 30pc of its GDP accounted for by exports, compared to only 12pc for the US. With the Italian economy now contracting again, unemployment is rising from its already appallingly high level of 10pc. Moreover, the surveys suggest continued weakness for the rest of 2019. Despite austerity, the ratio of government debt to GDP is now at 132pc. And there has been no improvement whatsoever in competitiveness against other euro members.” – bto: Das ist eine Mischung, von der “radikalere” Kräfte profitieren.
- “The Italian government believes that stronger growth will be made possible by its laxer fiscal policies, with the result that the budget deficit will come in much lower than the Commission believes. But after recent economic news from both Italy and the wider world, this view goes beyond optimism and into fantasy.” – bto: Das ist klar. Der Kompromiss zwischen der Kommission und Italien war auch nur Show.
- “The bond markets continue to worry about the sustainability of Italy’s debt position and its continued membership of the euro. Italian 10-year bond yields are about 2.6pc above their German equivalents, compared to 1.2pc before the current government was formed. Unless Italy manages to conjure up a sustained growth spurt, then the eventual result will be a default, an exit from the euro, or both.” – bto: einfach, weil sie doch den Weg zur Parallelwährung gehen werden.
- “(…) the imbalance in monetary movements within the eurozone continues to widen. Germany continues to build up huge claims on other countries within the euro system, with claims against Italy being the largest. Italy’s (Target 2) liabilities within the euro system have now risen to some €500bn (£438bn).” – bto: Das ist auch der Kapitalflucht geschuldet.
- “As and when Italy finally blows up this will cause both a banking crisis that will shake the European economy and a political crisis that will rock the EU to its foundations.” – bto: O. k., mag man da sagen, die Engländer wieder. Doch so falsch ist die Einschätzung nicht.