Zum Zustand der Eurozone

Es ist eine Erinnerung an die Gefahr einer erneuten Rezession in der Eurozone. Kurz die Fakten zusammengefasst:

  • “Italy and France slid deeper into an economic slump in January as their services sectors began to crumble, (…) The deteriorating picture looks broad-based. Italy is in its steepest downturn for over five years. It’s clear that the business environment is at its most challenging since the height of the region’s debt crisis. (…) The data point to eurozone growth of just 0.1pc in the first quarter. Orders books contracted in January for the first time since late 2014, even in Germany.” – bto: Das hat verschiedene Ursachen. Neben dem Euro und der Verschuldung wirkt zunehmend die demografische Entwicklung negativ.
  • “Germany’s finance minister Olaf Scholz is drawing up plans for a spending freeze on public sector staff and for the digitalisation fund needed to close Germany’s broadband and IT deficit, the country’s Achilles’ heel. (…) Germany is cutting the wrong things. Investment is being squeezed while social spending is marching ever upwards. The long-term sustainability of the German pension system is getting worse. This is all about electoral politics in an ageing society (…).” – bto: So ist es. Die Politik setzt alles daran, um uns zu ruinieren.
  • “On the monetary front, the European Central Bank is effectively tightening into the downturn, much as it did going into the crises of 2008 and 2011.It halted bond purchases in December under pressure from northern capitals, despite having failed in its stated objective of lifting inflation to safe levels. The political bar for fresh quantitative easing is very high. Interest rates are already minus 0.4pc and cannot usefully be cut further.” – bto: Es wird Zeit, anzuerkennen, dass die EZB die Krise eben nicht lösen kann, sie kann sie nur unterdrücken und verschleppen.
  • “It is hard to gauge the likely effects of a disorderly no-deal Brexit at this juncture since much would depend on the exact response by both sides. (…) A study by Deloitte concluded that supply chain disruptions might cause more damage to the car industry in Germany than in the UK. Direct German car sales to the UK would drop by more than 250,000 units a year.” – bto: Egal, die EU hält sich ja für unersetzlich und unbesiegbar.
  • “The composite survey of manufacturing and services for France fell at the fastest pace since the eurozone debt crisis in January. The country is not in recession but the measure is getting close. The index has fallen to 48.2, well below the boom-bust line. (…) The slide suggests a fundamental erosion of confidence in the economic master plan of president Emmanuel Macron. The longer it goes on, the greater the risk that France’s public debt ratio will punch above 100pc of GDP (…) Italy continues to drift lower after slipping into a technical recession the second half last year, with the composite PMI index dropping to 48.8. (…) Barclays has slashed its growth estimate to 0.3pc this year. Lorenzo Codogno from LC Macro Advisors fears that the final figure could be closer to minus 0.2pc, raising the risk of a full-blown sovereign debt crisis as soon as this autumn.” – bto: Dann kauft die EZB aber wieder tüchtig, keine Sorge.
  • “The slump has potent effects on the country’s knife-edge debt trajectory, already close to the point of no-return above 130pc of GDP.(…) Capital Economics said a fall in the working age population by 0.5pc a year will increasingly compound the effect, pushing the debt ratio towards 150pc in the 2020s.” – bto: Wobei wir ja in Japan sehen, wie man das alles locker machen kann.
  • “The looming risk of Italian insolvency is gnawing at confidence in French banks. They hold €286bn of Italian sovereign bonds, led by BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole through their subsidiaries. That is over half the total exposure of the European banking system to Italy’s debt.” – bto: Die Bankenunion dient nur dazu, dass nach Griechenland erneut die deutschen Steuerzahler französische Banken “retten”.
  • “The eurozone’s Stability Pact allows for some latitude on budget deficits in a downturn, but the overall bias is contractionary. (…) The currency still has no joint treasury or fiscal entity able to act for monetary union as a whole in a recession.” – bto: was aber auch nichts bringen würde, wie wir wissen.

→ The Telegraph: “Eurozone hovers on the brink of recession – but Germany pushes for more austerity”, 5. Februar 2019