So wird es kommen: radical Risk-sharing

OMFIF ist nach eigener Aussage ein “independent think tank for central banking, economic policy and public investment – a neutral platform for best practice in worldwide public-private sector exchanges.” – bto: Sie geben also den Notenbankern (gute?) Ratschläge, so wie hier der EZB:

  • “The European Central Bank has decided on a gradual approach to adjusting its reinvestments of maturing bonds according to its adjusted capital key – the proportion of the ECB’s share capital held by participant countries in economic and monetary union. The main focus of action by the national central banks that make up the Eurosystem is ‘to safeguard orderly market conditions’ – in other words, to prevent a crisis in EMU by a ballooning of the bond yield spreads between Germany and outlying member states.” – bto: witzig. Ich dachte, dass Ziel wäre, die Deflation zu bekämpfen, nicht die Spreads zu managen.
  • “Now that the ECB’s four-year €2.6tn bond-buying programme is coming to an end (despite this, the ‘balance of risks is moving to the downside’), there are other ways, more overt and effective, to stabilise monetary union, through a more concentrated form of risk-sharing.” – bto: aha. “Risikoteilung” klingt doch gut, wer hat das eigentlich politisch vereinbart?
  • “The first step would be to remove the capital key criterion and to concentrate future NCBs’ reinvestments only on highly indebted countries, along the lines of what was done between 2010-12 with the securities markets programme.” – bto: Dafür ist die EZB bekanntlich da, nämlich die Zinssubventionierung für die schlechten Schuldner.
  • “A second step would be to remodel the programme so that interests received on purchased securities are returned to the sovereign issuers which have disbursed them.” – bto: So muss es sein, denn dann kosten die Schulden nichts mehr. Das nennt man Monetarisierung. Es geht nur noch darum, die Schulden faktisch aus der Welt zu schaffen.
  • “(…) future Eurosystem reinvestments should be focused on very long-term debt (20-50 years) as part of a coordinated intervention with national Treasuries. This would stabilise inside the NCBs’ balance sheets part of the public debt of peripheral countries’ sovereign issuers, with a corresponding drop in the funding costs.” – bto: Natürlich und im nächsten Schritt erlässt dann die Notenbank die Schulden. So einfach ist es und es wird auch so kommen.
  • “A final – more radical – step would be to replace NCBs with the ECB itself as direct securities buyer: this would send to market participants the important message that all sovereigns are regarded in the same way by their ‘mother central bank’.” – bto: was für eine Lüge. Sie wären nicht gleich, sondern es wäre so, dass die EZB einen Schuldner umso mehr “mütterlich liebt”, je schlechter er ist!
  • “The limited risk-sharing under the current bond-purchasing set-up has played a key role in keeping segregated the public debt markets of member states and fuelling capital movements from southern to central-northern euro area countries. (…) We need a radical rethink, which cannot come without a political effort to give the ECB more wiggle room in order to support re-convergence across the yield curves of the various member states and across their inflation rates.” – bto: Und ist erstmal der Marktmechanismus außer Kraft gesetzt, geht es richtig los!
  • “The problem is that with risks of a US recession growing in the next two years, and with an economic slowdown in the euro area, the ECB is ending its asset purchases at an unfortunate time. Unless the ECB and euro governments reshape the set of ‘weapons’ available to the monetary authority, the next crisis could prove even more difficult to resolve than the last one.” – bto: Das stimmt. Nur ist die Antwort auf eine Schuldenkrise die unlimitierte Bereitstellung von Geld?

→ “Radical risk-sharing rethink”, 19. Dezember 2018