Lasst uns tanzen – wie vor zehn Jahren

Die FT nimmt sich erneut der Party an den Finanzmärkten an:

  • “It is 10 years, almost to the day, that Chuck Prince, then chief executive of Citigroup, told the Financial Times: When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.” – bto: genau wie wir auch heute getrieben von der Liquidität der Märkte weiter tanzen.
  • “According to Harry Colvin of Longview Economics, the US equity bull market is now the second longest since 1896. It is also the third largest, delivering a cumulative 328 per cent total return to early July. Like just about every other market in this world of hyperactive central banking it looks very expensive. The cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio is at a level previously only seen before the 1929 Wall Street Crash and in the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s. With the Fed likely to raise rates further this year and actively discussing how to shrink its balance sheet, the more nervous dancers may be tempted to make an exit.” – bto: Das wissen wir schon seit Langem, dennoch ist es eine gute Erinnerung.
  • “When a bull market is as long in the tooth as this one there remains a question as to whether further policy tightening will expose underlying economic weaknesses or financial fissures that could ultimately sour the party. The most obvious threat concerns the accumulation of debt since the financial crisis. The central banks’ pursuit of asymmetric monetary policy whereby they have eased aggressively when confronting collapsing markets, but chosen not to lean against booms has led to a downward bias in interest rates and an upward bias in debt.” – bto: Auch das ist bekannt und schädlich für die Finanzstabilität.
  • “Anything remotely approaching a normalisation of policy interest rates could cause a spike in bond market yields, which could in turn spur financial fragility, especially in the eurozone where bank balance sheets are overloaded with sovereign debt and still undercapitalised. Meantime, global growth has been unbalanced, with dismal productivity performance and low investment.” – bto: ebenfalls nicht neu.  Wir haben boomende Finanzmärkte bei immer schlechteren Fundamentals.
  • “(…) central bankers have been consistently bad at reading their economies. The German philosopher Hegel said that experience and history teach us that people and governments have never learned anything from history. I would argue, per contra, that trying to navigate financial markets without some understanding of history is a potentially forlorn endeavour.” – bto: Und die Geschichte lehrt, was nicht gut gehen kann, geht nicht gut.

Gestern haben wir schon gesehen, dass es selbst ohne Crash nur geringe Renditeaussichten gibt.

→ FT (Anmeldung erforderlich): „A decade on investors are once more dancing furiously“, 11. Juli 2017