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“The 1890s and the end of the great bond bull market”

Heute Morgen haben wir das Szenario einer Zinswende diskutiert. Gerade zu Zeiten, wo langlaufende Anleihen – Österreich 70 Jahre! – en vogue sind, ein sehr relevantes Thema. Nun der Blick in die Geschichte. Es gab auch früher schon Bullen-Märkte bei Anleihen und auch diese gingen zu Ende, wie die FT in einem Rückblick auf das vorletzte Jahrhundert erläutert:

  • “Many of the forces that have driven bond yields down for the past 20 years are the same forces that sent yields lower in the two decades before 1895: deflation, technology, globalisation and excess savings.” – bto: Heute kommen aber Demografie und hohe Schulden mit dazu.
  • “Between 1873 and 1896 prices fell about 40 per cent. Then the industrial revolution permeated commercial activity — from industry and mining to communications and transport, to finance and medicine. Global trade volumes soared thanks to falling trade barriers and better transport technology.” – bto: Hier hinkt der Vergleich zu heute. Die industrielle Revolution hat sich bisher eben nicht in mehr Produktivität niedergeschlagen. Die Preise sind wegen des gestiegenen Arbeitskräfteangebots und der Überkapazitäten unter Druck. Die neuen Technologien wirken auch heute deflationär, dies aber nicht alleine.
  • “What’s more, the forces that finally succeeded in pushing up yields and inflation after the mid-1890s look similar in many ways to what is happening today.”
  • “(…) factors (…) directly influential in ending the downtrend in inflation and yields: a sustained increase in money supply and the rise of protectionism in international trade, (…) a changing domestic political consensus and increasing geopolitical tensions.” – bto: in der Tat Themen wie auch heute.
  • “The increase in the global money supply in the 1890s took the form of a huge increase in gold production, as all major economies were on the gold standard at the time. (…) today’s quantitative easing is the equivalent in a fiat money system of producing more gold in a gold standard system. (…) If it did (raise the price level), it was with a considerable lag, and indirectly. The same may yet prove to be true of quantitative easing.” – bto: Also hieße die These, es kommt, aber eben sehr langsam. Würde zur Ketchup-Inflation passen. Oder aber die Inflation kam aus den anderen Gründen.
  • “Protectionism also revived in the 1890s, reversing the previous 20 years’ momentum towards ever-freer global markets. Prices accelerated fastest in the countries which imposed the highest tariffs.” – bto: was ja nun nicht überrascht. Hinzu kommen die Länder, denen es gelingt, die eigene Währung am deutlichsten abzuwerten.
  • “Populism (of which the success of protectionism was a symptom) gained ground during the 1890s, as the economic policies which had appeared justified in the mid-19th century by increasing wealth, were increasingly questioned. In the 19th century, populism generally meant socialism. Today, it mostly means something else: the solutions on offer are different. But the rejection of the previously accepted economic and political consensus is the same (…).”– bto: und Ausfluss des schwierigeren ökonomischen Umfelds.
  • “Geopolitical tensions also rose. The ‚peace dividend‘ of optimism and productive economic activity following the end of the US civil war and the Franco-Prussian war in 1870 gradually eroded as international relations soured. Likewise geopolitical tensions run far higher now than in the optimistic aftermath of the fall of the Berlin Wall.”
  • “(…) after more than 20 years of disinflation and falling bond yields there is today — finally — a confluence of upward pressures on inflation and yields similar in many ways to that of the 1890s. In the coming years, these pressures look set to strengthen, not weaken, drawing to a close this latest period of ‚lowest ever‘ yields.” – bto: als Folge eines politischen Klimawandels.

bto: Das klingt sehr überzeugend. Allerdings hinkt – wie erwähnt – der Vergleich, weil die demografische Entwicklung und die Verschuldung zwei Faktoren sind, die heute zusätzlich auf der Wirtschaft lasten.

→ FT (Anmeldung erforderlich): “The 1890s and the end of the great bond bull market”, 24. Oktober 2016