ALBERT EDWARDS: a recession is imminent – selbst so nur Eiszeit-Erträge

• „The excellent folks at Advisor Perspectives highlight the Fed’s Labour Market Conditions Index as suggesting a recession is imminent (the cumulative peak is an average of 9 months ahead of the start of recession and we are now four months beyond a peak)“:

Quelle: Societe Generale/Advisor Perspectives

• „This, of course, is just another recession in Edwards’ Ice Age thesis, which posits that during long-term equity downturns, it takes at least four recessions to work through. So far, according to Edwards, we have only had two since the top of the bubble in 2000, so we still have a way to go until the pain is over.“
• „‚The secular bear market only ends when cyclically adjusted valuation measures reach rock bottom (such as the Shiller PE on the bottom line)‘, said Edwards.“ – bto: Bekanntlich ist das Shiller-PE nahe den alten Höchstständen, sodass nicht mehr viel Ertrag zu erwarten ist, selbst wenn es nicht crasht.
• „Each successive recession (red part of real S&P top line) sees huge downturns, usually to new lower lows of both prices and valuations. That is why we reiterated our view early this year that in the coming recession the S&P will bottom at 550, a 75% decline from current levels.“

Quelle: Societe Generale

• „It is not a pleasant place. It is cold, dark, and damp. People either don’’t speak to you or send you abusive emails. Members of your own family pretend not to know you. Actually, I made that last bit up.“

Ja, das Gefühl kenne ich!

Wenn man langfristig denkt, könnte man ja sagen: Was schert mich die kurzfristige Turbulenz, auf Sicht von 20 Jahren kann ich ja nur richtigliegen. Das stimmt, aber auch hier – wie ich auch immer wieder geschrieben habe – sind die Erträge realistischerweise nur noch gering. Andrew Lapthorne, ebenfalls von der SocGen und enger Kollege von Albert Edwards, rechnet vor:

• „The following chart plots the excess return from investing 100,000 US dollars for 20 years in a balanced portfolio consisting of 50% MSCI World, 40% global sovereign bonds, 5% cash and 5% corporate bonds. We show the gross amount and a net amount assuming investment charges and costs of 100bps.“
• „If you invested today for 20 years the after cost excess return might be $21,800 (today’s yield on a balanced portfolio is just 199bps minus 100bps) versus $60,000 if you invested 10 years ago – and a $150,000 30 years ago. Of course inflation rates are much lower today than they were 30 years ago and trading and management costs are coming down. But you can’t escape the obvious conclusion: those with large nominal liabilities are going to have to find more money.“ – bto: Damit meint er Pensionsfonds und Lebensversicherungen!