“The world today looks ominously like it did before World War I”
Bekanntlich war die Welt schon einmal richtig globalisiert und es galt als undenkbar, dass es jemals wieder zu einem Krieg kommen würde. Das war 1912. Kurze Zeit später begann die wohl zerstörerischste Periode der Geschichte. Die Parallelen zu heute sind überdeutlich. So überdeutlich, dass sich sogar die Deutsche Bank damit beschäftigt, wie die Washington Post berichtet:
- “A backlash to globalization appears to be gaining strength around the world. U.S. politicians on both the right and left have called for curbing free trade deals they say benefit foreigners or the global elite.” – bto: In der Tat ist der Protektionismus weltweit auf dem Vormarsch.
- “President-elect Donald Trump has championed tariffs on imports and limits on immigration, and suggested withdrawing from international alliances and trade agreements. Meanwhile, populist and nationalist governments have gained ground in Europe and Asia, and voters in Britain have elected to withdraw from the European Union.” – bto: Das hat aber meines Erachtens mehr mit der Migration als mit der Globalisierung zu tun. Das wird gerade in der Politik gerne durcheinandergeworfen, vor allem um eine Zwangsläufigkeit zu suggerieren, die da nicht ist.
- “In a recent report, Josh Feinman, the chief global economist for Deutsche Asset Management, says that the world could see a substantial backsliding to globalization in decades to come. After all, he writes, we have seen it happen before, in the years of chaos and isolationism that encompassed the First and Second World Wars and the Great Depression.” – bto: Und wir sind dabei, es wieder zu erleben, das denke ich auch.
- “Other economists have proposed similar theories in the past. Branko Milanovic, Dani Rodrik, Niall Ferguson, Fred Bergsten and others have argued that globalization is a cyclical process, accelerating and retrenching over decades, as global integration naturally gives rise to a backlash.” – bto: Was für wohl alle sozialen Prozesse gilt, siehe auch die Theorie der Kondratieff-Wellen.
- “From the mid-19th century to 1914, advances like steamships, the telegraph, the telephone and the Suez and Panama canals dramatically shrunk distances and increased communication, and the world underwent a period of rapid globalization (…) merchandise exports rose as a share of the economy, evidence of globalization.” – bto: Und damals dachte man, es wäre unumkehrbar …
Quelle: Deutsche Asset Management/Washington Post
- “These changes spread the benefits of the Industrial Revolution around the world, Feinman says. But in some places, particularly wealthier countries, they also worsened inequality. Trade enriched some people but left others behind, triggering unrest and a political backlash.” – bto: der auch damit zu tun hatte. Vor allem war es eine sehr unterschiedliche Entwicklung, gerade auch in Europa, wo Deutschland deutlich schneller vorankam als Frankreich und Großbritannien.
- “(…) countries gradually introduced more trade barriers and restrictions on immigration. (…) With the World Wars and the Great Depression, globalization collapsed, and nationalist movements and economic isolationism reigned for decades.” – bto: Und dies werden wir erleben. Gerade die Politik von Deutschland wird sich als ein großer Fehler herausstellen.
- “In the decades following World War II, the pendulum swung in the other direction. (…) International organizations like the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the precursor to the World Trade Organization — institutions that creators believed might help make another world war impossible. Since then, the world has experienced what many think of as the second great wave of globalization.” – bto: die nach 1989 richtig an Fahrt gewonnen hat. Gerade auch mit dem Eintritt von China.
- “(…) there are some strong parallels, Feinman says. “Modern globalization has been spurred by some of the same forces that powered the pre-WWI epoch: New technologies, an open, free-trade, rules-based world economic system underpinned by the leading power of the day, and a period of general peace among major countries.”(…) the share of wealth owned by the richest Americans – an indicator of inequality – have returned to pre-World War I levels, after dipping during the mid-1900s (…).” – bto: Die Parallelen sind in der Tat bestechend.
- “(…) globalization is far from solely responsible for the economic malaise that some in the United States and around the world experience. In addition to globalization, technology, social changes and government policies have all been instrumental in determining who benefits and who loses out from global economic integration in past decades.” – bto: und die angesprochene Migration, die nicht in einem zwangsläufigen Zusammenhang steht.
- “Globalization has also hurt some less-skilled workers by exposing them to competition.(…) It’s easier for politicians to blame foreign countries for their troubles than technology, since technology is often viewed in a positive light.” – bto: Die Alternative wären bessere Bildung und mehr Investitionen gewesen, doch Anstrengungen sind unpopulär, weshalb lieber auf Schulden gesetzt wurde. Nun schmerzt die verlorene Zeit zusätzlich.
- “In September, the WTO projected that global trade growth would fall to 1.7 percent in 2016, the slowest pace since the 2009 financial crisis. (…) the world is seeing more trade barriers and a dramatic slowdown in the crafting of new trade pacts.” – bto: In jedem Jahr seit 2008 haben die protektionistischen Eingriffe in der Welt zugenommen.
Fazit Washington Post: “The global economy is still remarkably integrated, and new technology is tying people around the world more closely than ever before. Yet, as history demonstrates, this process can be reversed.”
bto: Ja, in der Theorie stimmt das. In der Praxis bezweifle ich es. Zu groß sind die Probleme, vor denen wir stehen.
Und hier die Studie:
→ Deutsche Bank: “Backlash against globalization: Déjà vu?”, Dezember 2016
