“Italy needs reform and a euro exit is inevitable”

Roger Bootle hat schon vor Jahren erklärt, wie man den Euro auflösen könnte: → Capital Economics wins Wolfson prize.

Wenig verwunderlich, dass er nun auch bei Italien skeptisch ist. Roger Bootle schreibt jeden Montag im Telegraph,  aus seinem Beitrag vom 27. November 2016:

  • “As with other referendums and elections, the vote will be regarded by the populace not so much as an opportunity to express a view about the precise details of institutional reform, as a chance to give their verdict on Mr Renzi’s government in particular and the state of Italy in general.” bto: was es nicht gerade verbessert!
  • “And it really is in quite a state. The Italian banking system is appallingly weak. Almost 20pc of loans are ‚non-performing, meaning that borrowers are not paying the interest due. Many will probably not be able to repay their debts. At some point or other, there is going to be a reckoning, and it is not going to be pretty.” bto: definitiv nicht.
  • “‘Over recent years, the Italian government has battened down the hatches in an attempt to reduce the burden of public sector debt. But it has failed. As a share of GDP, Italian government debt stands at about 130pc, and rising. (…) Indeed, if you exclude interest payments, it is running a surplus of 1.4pc of GDP. The problem is that it cannot exclude interest payments. And they are huge, amounting to about 4pc of GDP every year.” bto: Man kann sich aus der Pleite eben nicht heraussparen.
  • Some readers may remember that in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s Italy was a powerhouse of economic growth.” bto: In der Tat wird das leicht vergessen.
  • “Since the beginning of 2008, the US and the UK are currently registering output up by about 12pc and 8pc respectively. Over the same period, Italy’s GDP is down by 8pc.” bto: Das ist natürlich eine Depression, weshalb es wundert, wie wenig Unruhe es in Italien gibt.
  • Since the beginning of 1999, the UK economy has grown by almost 40pc, against about 25pc in Germany and France. But Italy’s performance is in a different league. Over the last 17 years it has managed to grow by less than 6pc. In other words, since the formation of the euro, Italy’s economy has essentially stagnated. Along with this stagnation has come an employment disaster.” bto: was noch mehr verwundert, weshalb die Italiener das solange hinnehmen.
  • Nor is the long-term outlook very promising. The Italian birth rate is running at about 1.4 per woman. The United Nations projects that by 2035, Italy’s population will have fallen by about 2pc. Quite apart from what that would do directly to reduce the size of the Italian economy, this is not exactly an environment in which Italian businesses will be galvanised into investment.” bto: Bevor wir jetzt in Deutschland lachen, letztlich droht uns das Gleiche hier.
  • Italy needs a much lower exchange rate. (…) Not that a weaker currency would solve all problems. (…) But if it could enjoy a boost to competitiveness of 20 to 30pc through a lower exchange rate, this would lead to a surge in net exports and higher economic growth, with corresponding gains to employment. In such an environment, it might be easier to get through some of the many reforms that Italy needs.” bto: Es ist immer leichter in einem besseren Umfeld. Gemacht wird es dann allerdings auch nicht …
  • Whatever the outcome on Sunday, though, I have come to believe that this is not a matter of if but when.” bto: voll einverstanden!

→ The Telegraph: “Italy needs reform and a euro exit is inevitable”, 27. November 2016