“BIS fears ‘snapback’ crunch as rising rates meet record global debt”

Gestern Morgen habe ich schon über den neuen Jahresbericht der BIZ berichtet. Ambroise Evans-Pritchard vom Telegraph war etwas fleißiger und hat sich die Aussagen genauer angeschaut. Hier die Essenz (nicht erbaulicher als meine Einschätzung):

  • “World debt ratios have spiralled to record levels during the era of super-easy money and markets are showing tell-tale signs of late-cycle excess, leaving the international financial system acutely vulnerable to a jump in borrowing costs. Any reversal in our fortunes could be quick and sharp, says the Bank for International Settlements.”  bto: was, wie Leser von bto natürlich wissen, am Charakter hoher Verschuldung liegt. Sie vergrößert definitionsgemäß die Krisenanfälligkeit des Systems.
  • “Governments are running low on monetary and fiscal ammunition needed to fight fresh shocks or to cope with recession. An inflation surprise may lurk, risking a snapback in global bond yields and a horrid denouement for an investment universe built on assumptions of lowflation forever.”  bto: Damit sind sie einer Meinung mit Leuten wie Albert Edwards, die in dem Inflationsschock die größte Gefahr sehen  vor dem Rückfall in die deflationäre Krise.
  • Banks have higher capital ratios and are safer than in 2007 but the risk has rotated to pension funds, insurers, and asset managers overseeing $160 trillion of global wealth  including $45 trillion of shadow banking  now clustered in crowded trades with narrow exits.”  bto: Das ist die logische Folge der höheren Verschuldung.
  • Public debt has reached post-War highs in both rich and emerging economies.  Fiscal profiles have been flattered by financial expansions and the windfall of fair weather tax revenues. It is a Faustian Pact. Promiscuous recourse to debt brings forward prosperity from the future, but eventually the future arrives  with a sting in the tail: the extra debt leads to deeper and prolonged recessions.”  bto: So ist es und führt damit zu noch mehr Interventionen und noch tieferen Zinsen und noch mehr Schulden …
  • “The imperative is to build up fiscal space while the going is good. The Trump Administration is doing the exact opposite (…) While the report is careful not to single out the US, (…) The stimulus will force the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates faster, and out of step with Europe and Asia. This risks a spike in the dollar, which in turn threatens to topple the vast edifice of dollar-denominated debt outside US jurisdiction.” – bto: wie auf bto immer wieder diskutiert und auch im Chart von gestern gut zu sehen.
  • “BIS said global dollar lending has exploded to around $25 trillion when equivalent swaps and derivatives are included. It is a form of leveraged leakage from quantitative easing and zero rates. (…) It fueled a global asset and credit boom when the going was good. The process is now going to reverse. The stronger dollar and rising US rates together act a tightening tourniquet on world liquidity.” – bto: Genau, so ist es!
  • Mr Shin said the dollar exchange rate is what drives the world’s animal spirits, in both directions. When it strengthens, banks with unhedged exposure are forced to retrench. The tail risk in the portfolio goes up and they might have to cut back positions, not just for dollar bonds but for other assets as well. The mechanism acts as a broad tightening of credit conditions, he said.
  • “Emerging markets are on the front line. Dollar debt in these countries has doubled to $7.2 trillion since 2007, much of it owed by companies. Dollar bond issuance soared by 17pc last year alone. (…) The squeeze has already exposed the rot in Argentina and Turkey. Signs of stress are spreading to Indonesia, South Africa, and Brazil, among others. The danger is accelerating capital flight as fickle foreigners rush for the door. (…) The blowback into the US, Europe, and rich economies could be hard to contain. Emerging markets have accounted for two-thirds of global growth  over the last seven years.” – bto: Und wir sollten China bei dem ganzen Spiel nicht vergessen, die größte Schuldenwirtschaft der Welt.
  • “A string of countries that avoided the worst last time are now grappling with property booms and excess credit – Canada, Australia, and implicitly China. The imbalances are qualitatively similar to those observed pre-crisis in the economies that subsequently ran into trouble. In the US, in particular, corporate leverage today is at its highest level since the beginning of the millennium and similar to that prevailing after the leveraged buyout boom of the late 1980s. This is so even after accounting for large corporate cash balances (…).” – bto: bekannt und gefährlich. Vermutlich geht von dort die nächste große Krise aus.
  • While the $138 trillion global banking sector is healthier, it is overshadowed by a $160 trillion asset industry that has crowded into riskier assets in a hunt for yield. It is vulnerable to redemption risk and a vicious circle of forced selling into a falling market.” – bto: Ich habe das schon vor einiger Zeit in meiner Kolumne für die WirtschaftsWoche kommentiert. Wir haben es mit einer Liquiditätsillusion zu tun.
  • “The unpleasant reality is that governments have little left in the arsenal if a recession were hit to soon. The BIS has long argued that central banks boxed themselves into a corner during the era of inflation targeting, letting asset booms run unchecked but then intervening massively to prevent the bust. This asymmetric reflex has led to zombie companies instead of clearing dead wood. It explains poor productivity growth and a loss of dynamism.” – bto: Das sehe ich genauso. Wir haben mit unserer Politik die Probleme vergrößert, nicht verkleinert.
  • “It inevitably leads to credit-driven asset bubbles. It becomes ever harder for central banks to confront these excesses. Policy-makers are caught in a debt-trap of their own making. Ultra-low rates in turn beget further low rates. Eventually it becomes impossible to cut rates far enough in a downturn. It is the end of the road. Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned last week that the central banks need 500 basis points of rate cuts to fight recessions. They do not have such a margin.” – bto: So ist es. Wir nähern uns dem Endspiel, wobei es angesichts des unbändigen Willens der Notenbanken und der Politik auch nur das Achtelfinale sein kann, ist doch der Wille, das System bis zur völligen Katastrophe zu manipulieren, nicht zu unterschätzen. Hier lerne ich täglich dazu.

→ telegraph.co.uk: “BIS fears ‘snapback’ crunch as rising rates meet record global debt” , 24. Juni 2018