Es gibt herausragende Beobachter der Märkte, von denen man nur schwer die Materialien direkt erhält. Zu ihnen gehört zweifellos Albert Edwards, Erfinder der Eiszeitthese und gelegentlich auf bto. Letztes zumeist via Zero Hedge. So auch heute mit seiner Prophezeiung, dass es den Notenbanken in der nächsten Krise an den Kragen gehen wird. Und sei es nur, weil die Politiker so vom eigenen Versagen ablenken:
- “While politics in the West reels from a decade of economic crisis and stagnation, asset prices continue to surge on the back of continued rapid growth in G3 QE. In an age of “radical uncertainty” how long will it be before angry citizens tire of blaming an impotent political system for their ills and turn on the main culprits for their poverty – unelected and virtually unaccountable central bankers? I expect central bank independence will be (and should be) the next casualty of the current political turmoil.” – bto: Ich halte diese Annahme für denkbar. Überzeugt bin ich nicht. Politiker und Notenbanker werden gemeinsam auf andere Schuldige zeigen.
- “What about the 3.5x oversubscribed 100 year Argentine government bond? (…) But what concerned me most about the story was it was demand from investors (‚reverse enquires‘) that prompted the issue. Is it just me or can I hear echoes of the mechanics of the CDO crisis? But no one cares when the party is still raging and investors, drunk with the liquor of loose money, are blind to the inevitable catastrophe that lies ahead.“ – bto: Warum sollte man auch? Vor allem sind alle Incentivesysteme auf Herdentrieb ausgerichtet.
- “In the immediate aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, politicians skilfully diverted the publics’ anger away from themselves by scapegoating ‚the bankers‘. After another eight years of economic stagnation that excuse no longer is tenable and politicians themselves are now taking the flak. But citizen revolutionaries will, I think, soon turn their fire on those who I believe are truly responsible for their plight.” – bto: was wir in Deutschland immer übersehen. In den anderen Ländern geht es längst nicht so gut.
- “Anecdotally we all know wealth inequality has risen due to central bank QE and free money. Although we can see and feel it, it is reassuring to see firm evidence. This week the UK Resolution Foundation published a damning report into rising wealth inequality in the UK. The report found the key driver for rising inequality was the collapse in UK home ownership since the 2008 financial crisis to a 30 year low.” – bto: Klar, weil sie nicht mehr an der Assetpreisinflation teilnehmen, fallen immer mehr vermögensmäßig zurück.
- “At least in the run-up to the 2008 GFC, owner occupation in the UK and US surged along with house prices and so working people had the illusion they were getting richer along with the rest of the population. Now there is no such illusion for what has been dubbed “generation rent”. In the US, to add insult to injury, rent inflation has rapidly outstripped CPI since the GFC.” – bto: Die Illusion des Reichtums für alle ist weg, stattdessen sinkt das verfügbare Einkommen.
- “My dire prognostications back in January 2010 proved premature (as usual). It has taken another seven years of economic stagnation and falling living standards of working people, together with the sight of the rich getting richer as a result of central bank QE polices, for the patience of ordinary working people to snap – most visibly in the US and UK elections. That rage has not diminished and the system is in the process of breaking down.” – bto: Das ist eine Befürchtung, die ich teile.
- “(…) there is a huge sigh of establishment relief in the eurozone in the wake of the defeat of the far right in recent French and Dutch elections. The establishment hope the tide towards radicalism has turned – at least in continental Europe. That belief is wrong in my view and the current revolution will devour more political and establishment victims before it’s over, most notably the central bankers themselves.” – bto: Verdient hätten sie es!