Vor der existenziellen Krise der Eurozone?

Wolfgang Münchau hatte ich schon länger nicht mehr bei bto. Er ist einer der besten Beobachter der Entwicklung in Deutschland und der Eurozone, wobei auch er das Problem hat, dass ihm der Stoff, etwas Neues zu schreiben, ausgeht. Es ist nun mal so, dass die Krise der Eurozone vor sich hin köchelt und es nur eine Frage der Zeit ist, bis es knallt.

Kommt nun die Rezession in Deutschland und damit in Europa, die dem Drama den nächsten Akt beschert?

  • “Over the course of the past week, we learnt two new things about the eurozone. Germany has closed the doors on serious reform. Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron’s meeting in Berlin exposed deep differences about the German and French leaders’ visions of the future.”  bto: wobei ich daran erinnere, dass es eben nur Symptomdoktoreien sind, die vor allem dazu dienen sollen, die Verschuldungskapazität in der Eurozone zu erhöhen (zu unseren Lasten!).
  • “(…) there has been a sudden decline in the eurozone’s economic activity. The latter is puzzling. It could be a fluke, but a number of recent indicators have all surprised on the downside. German industrial production has been weak since December. But it took a real dive in February, when it fell by 1.6 per cent against January. The European Automobile Manufacturers Association reported that car sales were down by 5.3 per cent in March. One of the more reliable gauges is the business cycle indicator of IMK, the German economic institute. It now registers a recession probability of one-third, up from almost zero a month earlier.”  bto: Dann geht es erst recht bergab hier, weil dann die Kosten der Zuwanderung richtig spürbar werden.
  • “We know for certain that Germany will not agree to a central eurozone budget to weather macroeconomic shocks. There will be no single safe asset. There will be no common deposit insurance. The big project of a European banking union will remain forever uncompleted.” bto: Übrigens, die Holländer und einige andere wollen das auch nicht!
  • “Then add something really dangerous — a recession — into the mix. (…) there are other reasons to suspect that something else might be afoot.The first has been the appreciation of the euro. The daily nominal trade-weighted exchange rate of the euro has increased by almost 7 per cent over the past year. For an economy with an extreme degree of export-dependency this is a big move. Most of the change occurred last year, but it would be normal for the economic impact only to become notable with a delay. Second, the financial crisis may have lowered the eurozone’s potential output permanently. The reported strong growth rates during 2016 and 2017 could have been a blip — a temporary relief after years of austerity. What is now disguising itself as a downturn may in time be revealed as a return to a depressed normality.”  bto: nicht zu vergessen die demografische Entwicklung!!
  • “Italy has registered almost no productivity growth since becoming a founding member of the eurozone in 1999. Yet, 2017 was a relatively good year for the economy. It matters a great deal whether a country with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 132 per cent can manage average real growth rates of less than 1 per cent or 2 per cent. That gap is the difference between solvency and insolvency.”  bto: Auch bei uns ist die Produktivität nicht mehr so gestiegen, wie in den Jahren zuvor.
  • “The EU has no instruments to cope with an Italian sovereign debt crisis. Italy is too big to fail and too big to save. The European Stability Mechanism, the rescue umbrella, is too small to cope. I have no doubt that the euro itself will survive in some form or other, but without reforms the risks of a fracture are greatly increased.”  bto: Ohne die Solvenz Deutschlands  die, wie Leser von bto wissen  keineswegs so gut ist, wie alle tun, ist der Euro nicht zu halten.
  • “Even President Macron’s reform agenda does not fully address this problem. But it would at least open the door to the infrastructure that is needed to do the heavy lifting in a crisis — a single safe asset and a fiscal backstop to the financial sector. The German position has been to reject these ideas from the outset.”  bto: Ich denke, sie sind wirkungslos bis schädlich.
  • “After years of following the eurozone debate, I have come to the conclusion that Germany will not agree to reforms unless it is confronted with a take-it-or-leave-it choice. A eurozone break-up would be a disaster for Germany. It would destroy the country’s export-led business model, and shrink its massive stock of external assets.”  bto: Im Klartext setzt Münchau auf eine erfolgreiche Erpressung. Doch wozu? Selbst wenn wir eine Transferunion gründen, bringt sie nichts. Oder würde Frankreich für Deutschland bezahlen?

ft.com (Anmeldung erforderlich): “Eurozone downturn and lack of reform presage existential crisis”, 22. April 2018