Italienische Kapitalflucht?

Ein Freund von mir betreut in der Schweiz vermögende Italiener bei der Geldanlage. Kürzlich berichtete er mir von einer zunehmenden Verlagerung von Geld aus Italien und dem Euro. Er meinte, es wäre weniger die Angst vor einem Zerfall des Euros – da gehen die Italiener davon aus, dass dieser um jeden Preis verhindert wird und die Deutschen bezahlen –, sondern mehr die Sorge vor plötzlichen Vermögensabgaben oder Bankpleiten.

Der Telegraph berichtet auch von einer langsamen Kapitalflucht aus Italien, begründet es aber eher mit der Sorge um den Bestand des Euro:

  • “Nervous Italians are starting to funnel money across the border into Switzerland, worried that an epic clash with the EU could set off a Greek-style banking crisis and a slide towards default. (…) People are concerned that if we get into the same situation as Greece, they might find the banks are closed and they can take out only €50 a day from cash machines.” – bto: was ein generelles Risiko ist, nicht nur in Italien.
  • “These are families with savings of €200,000 or €300,000. They want to set up accounts in Lugano or Chiasso across the border in Ticino where everybody speaks Italian. (…) It is linked to fears of euro break-up as the insurgent Lega-Five Star government tears up the eurozone fiscal rulebook.”
  • “The Swiss group Albacore Wealth Management told Italy’s Il Sole had received a wave of inquiries from Italians with €5m to €10m in liquid capital. The super-rich are already a step ahead. The big fish have been organizing the expatriation of their wealth for some time, it said.” – bto: auch das muss man nicht nur in Italien machen.
  • “The risk of Italy sliding into an unstable debt spiral has increased, (…) risk spreads on Italian 10-year bonds could rise sharply higher, perhaps punching through the 400 basis points. The trigger may be action by Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s later this month. Markets have already priced in one-notch cut in the rating but not a further negative watch as well, which would bring ‘junk’ status into sharp focus.” – bto: Ich denke das ja nicht. Alle sitzen in einem Boot und wollen eine Zuspitzung vermeiden.
  • “For now the spreads are hovering near the first big pain threshold of 300 points. This is already hurting banks, which hold €387bn of state debt. They face mark-to-market losses as yields rise. This erodes their capital buffers, forcing them to curtail lending. Or they might have to sell some of their bonds. Either action can quickly turn into a self-feeding doom-loop as the banks the sovereign state take each other down.” – bto: Aber bei guten Kunden schränken sie ein. Die Zombies bleiben erhalten.
  • “Any sign that Italians might be pulling money from bank accounts is ominous. David Owen from Jefferies said Italian deposits held rock solid through the eurozone crisis. It was nothing like Greece where there was wholesale liquidation. So far we haven’t seen any of that in the Italian data, he said.  However, figures from the Bank of Italy are released with a delay.” – bto: Und auch dann ist die Frage, ob man ihnen trauen kann.
  • “Mario Draghi, the ECB’s chief, told Rome over the weekend that there would be no soft rescue and warned of trouble if people start to put in question the euro. The clear message is that there is no ECB put. In the end, I’m sure the ECB will come to the rescue because Italy is simply too big to fail. So in a way, the balance of power lies with Rome.”bto: So ist es!
  • “Hardliners in the Lega-Five Star alliance think the EU is bluffing over the budget and will give ground. Lega economics spokesman Claudio Borghi told the Telegraph last week that the EU can expect Armageddon if it tries to force Italy to its knees.” – bto: Die Italiener sitzen am längeren Hebel!
  • “Brussels is in an invidious position. Italy is the first big test of the revamped rules. Failure to act will further erode the confidence of Germany and the Nordic states in the disciplinary structure of monetary union. Yet a knife-fight with Mr Salvini almost guarantees the very crisis that the EU most fears.” – bto: weshalb es stimmt, dass die Italiener am längeren Hebel sitzen.
  • “Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB’s president during the EMU crisis, told Corriere della Sera that this stand-off must be handled with extreme care, implicitly rebuking those in Brussels and Berlin who talk loosely of debt restructuring. It would be a catastrophe, he said.” – bto: Klar, einen Schuldenschnitt will keiner, schon gar kein Franzose.

→ “Italians shift money to Swiss safe-haven on fears of euro rupture “, 15. Oktober 2018