Da haben sie also getagt, die Notenbanker. Allen Durchhalteparolen zum Trotz mehren sich die Selbstzweifel. Irgendwie gelingt es nicht, eine deflationäre Depression in Zeitlupe mit noch mehr billigem Geld und Schulden zu überwinden. Zero Hedge fasste es knapp zusammen und gab den – richtigen – Ausblick auf das, was als Nächstes kommt. Hier die Auszüge:
- Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen, Friday, in a keynote speech at the conference: „In light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal-funds rate has strengthened in recent months.„
- Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, Friday, in a CNBC interview: When asked whether the Fed could raise rates at its meeting next month and again before the end of the year, he said Ms. Yellen’s speech „was consistent with answering yes to both of your questions, but these are not things we know until we see the data.“
- Fed governor Jerome Powell, in a Bloomberg television interview Friday:“We should be on a program of gradual rate increases,“ though he added, „We can afford to be patient“ when it comes to acting.
- -Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, Saturday, in a WSJ interview: „If the economy in the next few weeks performs consistent with my sense of the economy, then I think we ought to have a serious discussion at the September meeting“ about raising rates.
- St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, Saturday, in a WSJ interview: „If we had a lot of good news and we got into the September meeting and other people wanted to go, I could support that–but again I’m talking about one increase and no planned increases after that.“
- Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, in a Bloomberg television interview Friday: „The case for raising rates in the near term „has been strengthened.“
- Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, in an interview with CNBC Friday: „I see a gradual…upward pace in interest rates as being appropriate.“ As to when the Fed might raise rates next, she said, „I go into every meeting with an open mind.“
- Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said at the conference Saturday: “We will act decisively as we move on… The bank will carefully consider how to make the best use of the policy scheme in order to achieve the price stability target. The “zero lower bound is no longer insurmountable” as a policy constraint “in practice”; “It is natural to assume another lower bound exists,” and the current rate is “still far from such a lower bound”
- European Central Bank executive board member Benoit Coeure, at the conference Friday: „Negative rates work and are nothing extraordinary or immoral or absurd.“
- Bank of Mexico Gov. Agustin Carstens, in a WSJ interview Friday: A Fed rate increase „might trigger some reactions from our side, but we will also respond to other determinants of inflation.“
„(…) while fiscal policy was not on the formal agenda for the conference, it was a steady part of the dialogue as policymakers thought through policies for a post-crisis world. One of the central worries is that households and businesses have become so cautious and set in their outlooks – expecting little growth and little inflation – that they do not respond in expected ways to the efforts central banks have made.“
„According to one economist, what happens next may put the past 7 years of simple „financial repression“ and central bank failure to shame: in a lunch address by Princeton University economist Christopher Sims, „policymakers were told that it may take a massive program, large enough even to shock taxpayers into a different, inflationary view of the future.“ Fiscal expansion can replace ineffective monetary policy at the zero lower bound,“ Sims said. „It requires deficits aimed at, and conditioned on, generating inflation. The deficits must be seen as financed by future inflation, not future taxes or spending cuts.“ In other words, openly monetizing the debt with the intent of generating runaway inflation: think helicopter money on steroids, a strategy that ultimately risks the dollar’s status as a global reserve currency. (…) all it will take for central banks to get their wish – world governments shocking „taxpayers into an inflationary view of the future – is for the economy to collapse.“
bto: Es sieht ganz danach aus.