“Don’t rule out a world of perpetual quantitative easing”

Endlich sickert es durch. Wir sind gefangen und können unter keinen Umständen höhere Zinsen verkraften. Folge: Sollte es wirklich zu Inflation kommen, werden die Notenbanken nichts tun (wollen und können!). Die FT fasst die banale Erkenntnis zusammen:

  • “Fed officials are predicting that rates will have to rise before the end of the year and that there will be three more rate rises next year, while markets are pricing in merely a single rate rise between now and the end of 2018. Who, you might well ask, is right?” bto: Das dürfte über die Stimmung an den Märkten, aber auch über die Folgen für die Realwirtschaft entscheiden.
  • “(…) the Fed (…) appears confident that the markets will have no difficulty absorbing $10bn a month of Treasuries and agency securities as the Fed slims down its bloated $4.5tn balance sheet, starting this month. That is bold, given the unprecedented nature of the exercise (…).”bto: Wir wissen es wirklich nicht. Das macht es so gefährlich.
  • “At the very least the perception gap tells us that the scope for market upsets is considerable, especially when corporate debt levels are hitting new highs in the US.” bto: Ja, das muss man immer bedenken. Die US-Unternehmen haben richtig Gas gegeben und die Schulden nach oben getrieben!
  • “The other complicating factor for policy is the extraordinary mildness of the inflationary pressures at work in the advanced economies and the docility of labour in the face of stagnant or falling real incomes. The explanations for these so-called wage puzzles are many and various. (…) globalisation appears to have weakened the relationship between domestic slack and domestic inflation.” bto: Früher war es lokale Knappheit, künftig vielleicht globale Knappheit. Letztere sehe ich noch nicht, kann aber kommen. Gerade weil das Angebot gebildeter Menschen sinkt.
  • “The relationship between slack and inflation nonetheless appears to hold at global level. So with the world economy enjoying a synchronised upturn the global output gap will be shrinking. Yet there remains a question as to how many more emerging market workers are set to migrate from the land into urban areas.” bto: Das wirkt aber auch auf das Angebot qualifizierter Arbeitskräfte. Offen ist, ob die Automatisierung das Problem der Inflation löst (und mehr soziale Herausforderungen schafft.)
  • “If the central bank hawks are right that the world is about to become a more inflationary place, interesting issues arise in relation to the politics of removing the punch bowl when the party is hotting up. (…) independent central banking could not have enjoyed a more benign operating environment than in the period of disinflationary globalisation that followed. Today the background is less helpful.” bto: Klar, die Notenbanken werden niemals gegensteuern!
  • “The distributional implications of the central bankers’ response to the crisis (…) has lent strength to populist politicians who observe that unconventional central banking has delivered big capital gains to the asset-rich elite, while doing less for ordinary people. At the same time the build-up of debt means that borrowers are hostage to potential interest rate spikes (…).” bto: Und welcher Politiker möchte, dass die Schuldner unter Druck kommen? Es geht immer nur darum, die Gläubiger zu enteignen! Und das wird kommen, auf welchem Weg auch immer.
  • “The risk is that central bankers will find themselves torn between the politically unpopular and financially destabilising rate rises that might be required to curb inflation and the more quiescent approach that would be needed if they are to preserve what independence they have. The second outcome would, in effect, usher in an unbrave new world of perpetual quantitative easing.” bto: Ja, das ist es. Wir sind gefangen in einer Welt immer billigeren Geldes! Die Folge ist ungewiss und klar zugleich: Geld kann gar keinen Wert behalten. Es ist nur eine Zeitfrage!

→ FT (Anmeldung erforderlich): “Don’t rule out a world of perpetual quantitative easing”, 3. Oktober 2017