Die EZB erhöht in den Abschwung
Die Geldmengen sind bedeutender als die Kritiker denken. Nun zeigen sie nach unten und das sind keine guten Nachrichten:
- „The European Central Bank has precommitted to a further rise in interest rates this week and again in July, pressing on with the most rapid and aggressive rate cycle since the launch of the euro. It is doing so even though its own Financial Stability Report says surging borrowing costs have already caused demand for bank mortgages to crater at a faster rate than during the global financial crisis.” – bto: Die Folgen können wir bereits am Immobilienmarkt beobachten.
- „Net tightening in credit standards for firms and families is the worst since the white heat of the eurozone debt crisis. So is the slump in commercial real estate prices.“
Quelle: Telegraph
- „The ECB no longer pays attention to the money supply. It if did, it might be chastened by the collapse of M1, which has been contracting at an annual pace of nearly 11pc since November. Broad M3 money has fallen for the last five months. These aggregates point to a deepening disinflationary downturn through the rest of this year and into 2024.“ – bto: Die Geldmengen waren auch ein guter Indikator für die kommende Inflation.
- Und jetzt kommt Flassbeck, dem ich hier allerdings zustimme: „‘The authorities are wrong in their whole diagnosis and they risk doing enormous damage,‘ said Heiner Flassbeck (…) ‚Inflation is already over. Producer price inflation is falling by over 3pc month to month and that is a leading indicator of deflation. I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes to minus 7pc or 8pc by August. It is amazing that people still don’t realise what is happening.‘“ – bto: Wie sollte es auch anders sein? Man hat ja auch die Inflation nicht gesehen.
Quelle: Telegraph
- „The premise is that an exogenous inflation shock caused by Covid and Putin’s energy war is starting to metastasise into endogenous inflation that feeds on itself in a wage-price spiral.“ – bto: Diese Sorge ist berechtigt, aber ich bin auch eher bei Flassbeck.
- „But is the current episode anything like the 1970s? The Bloomberg commodity index has been falling for a year, and wage settlements in Germany have been remarkably tame. There seems to be no acknowledgement of the lesson from Japan: that once you cross into demographic decline – as much of Europe has – not even full employment stops you sliding back into deflation.“ – bto: Aber ich denke, Japan ist die Ausnahme, nicht der Standard für alle. Aber das müssen wir abwarten.
- „The International Monetary Fund is probably closer to the mark in concluding that interest rates will drift back towards zero once this storm is over (ie, the ‘natural rate’ is permanently depressed), in which case over-tightening is fatal. That way lies debt deflation.“ – bto: Und da wollen wir sicherlich nicht hin.
- „Germany is already in something deeper than a mild recession. Industrial production is 4.5pc below pre-Covid levels. New factory orders have fallen by 11.3pc over the last two recorded months. Retail sales are down 4.3pc year-on-year. Yet the coalition government has chosen this moment to force down the fiscal deficit, drawing up plans to cut spending across departments by 2-3pc in 2024.” – bto: Ich denke nicht, dass das geringere Defizit einen negativen Impuls sendet, waren die hohen Defizite doch „Sondervermögen“.
- „Yanis Varoufakis, ex-Greek finance minister and eurozone bête noire, said this mistimed austerity makes you want to weep after all that Europe has been through, but the damage goes deeper than a cyclical downturn. ‚It is a slow burning collapse of the German industrial model. They didn’t invest for 13 years and now it has come back to haunt them,‘ he said. ‚They have lost their access to cheap Russian gas, and are losing their easy access to the Chinese market. They will still make cars but a lot of the value added will slip away. There is going to be a gradual pauperisation,‘ he said.“ – bto: Er hat vollkommen recht. Und wir schauen schulterzuckend zu.
- „Mr Varoufakis said Europe has no credible riposte to the clean-tech industrial strategy of America and China. ‚The green deal is a figment of Ursula von der Leyen’s imagination. She talks of a trillion but there is really only $50bn, and it is not new money,‘ he said.“ – bto: Das ist bekannt.
- „The next shoe to drop is likely to be France. The French economy has held up well but that is because of price controls and runaway public spending, which is starting to attract global attention. (…) The debt ratio has risen to 112pc of GDP. The risk spread between German and French 10-year bonds has doubled to 52 basis points from pre-pandemic levels. Debt refinancing and interest payments over the next year amount to 24pc of GDP for Italy and 16pc for France (ECB data).“
Quelle: Telegraph
- „Bonds issued in the Draghi era at negative rates will have to be refinanced nearer 3pc. Without QE, there is no backstop buyer to camouflage the problem. The other backstop buyer is Japan, the world’s biggest net creditor and owner of 6pc of the French bond market. The worry is that the Bank of Japan will trigger a mass exodus from eurozone bonds once it stops suppressing bond yields at home (YCC).“ – bto: … ein durchaus realistisches Szenario.
- „The ECB is trying to restore lost credibility by flexing its muscles after the underlying inflationary cycle has already rolled over. So is the US Federal Reserve. This is driven by emotion and politics under the pretence of economic science. We need central bankers with a cooler nerve.“ – bto: Ich denke, es ist ein grundlegendes Problem. Die Notenbanken liegen seit Jahrzehnten falsch.
