Das Rezessionsszenario wird ernster

Ambroise Evans-Pritchard fasst im Telegraph die Lage der Weltwirtschaft zusammen. Für ihn ist der Zinsrückgang in Deutschland das wohl ultimative Warnzeichen dafür, dass es nicht gut aussieht:

  • “If semiconductor sales are the canary in the coal mine for the world economy, be careful. Korean shipments fell 25pc in February year-on-year. ‘That canary has completely keeled over. Collapse comes to mind,’ said Lakshman Achuthan from the Economic Cycle Research Institute.” – bto: Das sind natürlich starke Worte.
  • “(…) the US yield curve is ‘already priced for recession’. Should the US economy tip over at this juncture, the tail-risks for the world are murderous. ‘The situation is especially dire in Europe where the ECB never had a chance to normalize. Europe may see a recession when rates are still negative’ (…).” – bto: So wird es wohl sein.
  • The 10-year German Bund yield crashed below zero on Friday after IHS Markit’s gauge of manufacturing orders dropped to slump levels of 40.7, last seen in 2009. Can we now stop pretending that Germany is in rude good health, briefly held back by new car standards (last September) and low water levels on the Rhine?” – bto: Ja, lasst uns endlich die Fakten anschauen.
  • “The Bund today is a purer warning of looming deflation. This is a double-barreled menace for Euroland: it threatens a fresh downward leg for the crumbling STOXX bank equity index (off 32pc drop since early 2018) and a credit crunch; it brings Italy’s knife-edge debt dynamics into sharp focus.” – bto: Natürlich, denn eine deflationäre Tendenz ist für Schuldner tödlich.
  • “The ECB can act only in union with the bail-out fund (ESM), which requires a Bundestag vote. The sovereign/bank ‘doom loop’ never left us. (…) the ECB will be forced to renew QE later this year. (…) First there would have to be a crisis.” – bto: So ist es. Die EZB wird Dinge tun, die wir uns heute nicht vorstellen wollen. Nachdem es gekracht hat, denn dann ist die Legitimation da.
  • “Europeans – and investors – are counting on a Chinese fiscal bail-out for the world before it gets to that point. This is to court fate. China is in the grip of a combined cyclical and structural slowdown, or incipient ‘Japanisation’ with Chinese characteristics. (…) Fiscal stimulus from tax cuts and extra spending amounts to 1pc of GDP so far. This compares to total stimulus of 4pc after the currency scare of 2015-2016, and 10pc of GDP a decade ago in the gargantuan credit spree of 2008-2009.” – bto: Außerdem nimmt die Wirkung des Kreditimpulses ab. Immer weniger reales Wachstum für immer mehr neue Schulden.
  • Can the Fed save the day for us all? (…) The Fed has taken all rate rises off the table for 2019. Credit markets have gone a step further, pricing in one rate cut this year. (…) the damage from Fed tightening has been amplified by the world’s dollarised financial system. Rising 3-month dollar Libor rates are acting as slow torture for global borrowers with $4 trillion of debt priced off this contract.” – bto: Das hatte ich schon öfter an dieser Stelle. Es ist halt der Eckzins für eine Over-Leveraged World.
  • “(…) America’s corporate debt trap is closing in. Company liabilities have jumped from $2.5 trillion to $6.5 trillion in nine years, and two thirds of this has been frittered away on share buybacks, M&A, etc. (…) The share of US companies with lower-rated BBB and BB grades is greater than it was before the Lehman crisis. Their average net-debt/EBITDA ratio is almost six (…).” – bto: Das Risiko liegt in einer möglichen Welle an Downgrades.
  • “(…) a US-China trade deal may restore animal spirits. A Brexit deal may unleash pent-up investment on both sides of the Channel. (…) Output may bounce back over coming months. China may crank up hyper-stimulus just in time. Yet we are dealing with the balance of risks. The red alert in the US and European bond markets screams caution. It is becoming ever more perilous to try to time the top of this tired 10-year old expansion.” – bto: So oder so befinden wir uns am Ende der Entwicklung.
  • “Just remember, if you get this wrong and the world economy topples over into a deflationary vortex, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Fed have very little firepower left to fight back. Listen to the Bund.” – bto: Das stimmt natürlich nicht. Dann kommen MMT, die Helikopter oder weitere kreative Ideen. Die Manipulatoren des Systems geben noch lange nicht auf!

→ telegraph.co.uk: “Why you should listen to the bond vigilantes amid global recession fears”, 26. März 2019