Wenn es stimmt, was hier beschrieben wird, ist das nicht nur für China schlecht, sondern für die Weltwirtschaft und dann vor allem für das fragile Konstrukt, welches sich Euro nennt. Da braut sich ein Szenario zusammen, was man nicht anders beschreiben kann als eine mögliche Fortsetzung der unterdrückten Krise.
Ambroise Evans-Pritchard mag es ja gerne etwas alarmistisch. Dennoch zumindest bedenkenswert:
- „The yuan has plunged by 5pc since mid-June when trade conflict erupted and investors awoke to deepening slowdown in the Chinese economy. Foreign funds have since been rushing for the exits, taking advantage of open flows under the Hong Kong-Shanghai Connect scheme to withdraw capital.Yi Gang, the governor of the People’s Bank (PBOC), acknowledged that the currency slide risks turning malign. The moves have been enormous for what is normally a micro-managed exchange rate, evoking memories of currency crisis three years ago.“ – bto: was damals zu Befürchtungen an den Weltmärkten geführt hat, vor allem wegen der negativen Wirkung auf die Liquidität!
- „Beijing is clearly on edge. A report for the National Institution for Finance and Development last week said the situation was becoming dangerous, calling for prompt action to avert a break-down in confidence. ‚We think China is currently very likely to see a financial panic,‘ it said. The report, since removed from the website, said leveraged stock purchases had exploded to five trillion yuan (£570bn) and were storing up a repeat of the equity crash three years ago.“ – bto: ist doch gut, dass die Wall Street genauso hoch geleveraged ist mit Margin Debt.
- „The Chinese markets were already on edge even before Donald Trump stepped up his trade assault. Severe curbs on shadow banking launched last year are biting hard after a delay. The growth of fixed asset investment has been running at 6.1pc so far this year, the lowest since data began in 1998. ‚This is very disturbing. Prepare for the worst‘ (…).“ – bto: Es ist halt wie im Westen eine Schuldenillusion.
- „Nomura warned of ‚substantial capital flight‘ if markets begin to suspect that the PBOC is either pursuing policy of benign neglect, or even driving down the currency deliberately as a form of covert retaliation against Washington – deemed highly unlikely.“ – bto: aber nur, weil die Chinesen keine Kapitalflucht haben wollen. Die Frage ist, wie sich das weiterentwickelt.
- „(…) there is the risk of ‚non-linear‘ rupture that forces Beijing to take drastic action, with full-blown financial contagion across East Asia. In effect, this would be a classic emerging market crisis. (…) The currency slide has been happening in tandem with an equity crash. The Shanghai Composite index has dropped 22pc since peaking in late-January and is in a full-fledged bear market.“ – bto: Die Amerikaner sind mit ihrer Börse fast alleine zu Hause.
- „Contagion has spread to Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, down 15pc this year. Three-month Hibor lending rates have rocketed 110 basis points since April, a vivid display of what can happen when the US Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy and drains global dollar liquidity.“ – bto: Es hängt letztlich alles an der Fed und damit haben die USA einen enormen Hebel.
- „The incipient credit crunch threatens to puncture the overheated property market. The Bank for International Settlements says Hong Kong’s ‚credit gap‘ – a bubble gauge – is the world’s most extreme and three times over the danger line.“ – bto: China ist nicht weit dahinter!
- „(…) Mr Trump is alert to stock market moves and is likely to retreat if his trade rhetoric alarms Wall Street. The greater danger is that the Fed continues to ratchet up interest rates and pushes the dollar higher. ‚The stronger the dollar, the more difficult for China. It tightens global financial conditions,‘ he said. The Fed famously halted its tightening cycle in early 2016 when the Chinese currency crisis threatened to spin out of control. This bought vital time for China and emerging markets restore calm.It is a different picture today. The Powell Fed is more hawkish. The US economy is closer to overheating. The Trump tax package is drawing US corporate funds overseas back into the US. And there is a trade war. China – and the world – may be facing a perfect storm.“ – bto: alias „Margin Call“.