„China must wean itself off debt addiction if it is to avoid financial calamity, warns IMF chief“

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Zur Erinnerung an dieser Stelle nochmals der Hinweis, dass es fahrlässig wäre, die Entwicklung in China auf die leichte Schulter zu nehmen. Jeder, der mit Blick auf die Eingriffsmöglichkeiten der Regierung davon spricht, dass „China anders ist“, mag recht haben, kann aber auch der typischen Blasenillusion aufsitzen. Meldungen, wonach China auf Debt-Equity-Swaps setzt, um die Schuldenlast zu reduzieren, sind dabei, positiv zu sehen. Es wird gehandelt.

Wichtige Lektüre zu dem Thema:→ „Does It Matter If China Cleans Up Its Banks?“

Der Telegraph berichtet von der neuesten Warnung des IWF:

  • „China is edging towards ‚financial calamity‘ and must wean itself off its debt addiction and reform if it is to avoid a crisis, the International Monetary Fund has warned.“ – bto: Ich denke, genauso wenig wie im Westen bekommt man die Kreditmaschine zum Stoppen.
  • „(…) the world’s second largest economy was approaching a tipping point where its rapidly growing financial sector and surge in shadow credit could undermine the state’s ability to contain the fallout from a crash.“
  • „While still manageable in its size given the size of the public assets under public control, the trend is dangerous and if it’s not corrected it will lead to a correction.“
  • „Data show credit and financial sector leverage in China has continued to rise much faster than economic growth. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook said debt in China was rising at a ‚dangerous pace‘, while its Financial Stability Report showed small Chinese banks were heavily exposed to shadow credit as a share of capital buffers, with exposure reaching nearly 600pc at some banks.“
  • „(…) stronger trade ties and financial linkages between China and other countries meant the impact of a hard landing on the global economy could also be huge.“
  • „IMF analysis shows a 1pc decline in Chinese growth in translates into a 2pc decline in global output, with the biggest impact felt in neighboring countries and its closest trading partners.“
  • „The Bank for International Settlements raised alarm bells last month over China’s ‚credit to GDP gap. The key gauge of banking risk is currently at a record high of above 30, and much higher than levels seen in the run up to the 1997 Asian financial crisis.“
  • „(…) elements of strength that lead us to believe that even though these measures clearly indicate a warning, they are not signalling an imminent crisis as they might on the eve of Thailand before the Asia financial crisis.“ – bto: Das muss als Aussage vom IWF nicht viel heißen.
  • „Mr Rodlauer said it was more likely that an ‚accident would materialise if state enterprises and local government continued to plough money into unproductive investments or if China’s shadow banking system became much larger and more complex.“ – bto: und verstärken damit Überkapazitäten und deflationären Druck.
  • „While Mr Rodlauer said steady progress was now imperative, he said labour market reforms and opening up the services sector could help the country to maintain a growth rate of between 6pc and 7pc in the longer term, even if growth in the short and medium term is slower.“

bto: China bleibt die offene Frage und mehr Risiko als Chance. Denn einen Wachstumsboom, der die Weltwirtschaft nach vorne zieht, bekommen wir sicherlich nicht. Dabei gilt heute nicht mehr, „wenn die USA niesen, bekommt die Welt einen Schnupfen“, sondern, wenn China niest. Dies verdeutlicht diese Abbildung eindrücklich:

Quelle: Zero Hedge

Dabei wird auch erklärt, woran diese Umkehr liegt:

  • We postulate that this is due to the relative composition of China’s economy. The greater proportion of manufacturing in relation to the developed world means that things now tend to happen there first: the buildup of order books, the ramp up of steel production, the purchase of raw materials to restock inventories, the increased energy consumption and so forth. All this creates momentum across the global supply chain, eventually reaching the service sectors which are dominant in most OECD countries.
  • Kurzfristig sind das übrigens gute Nachrichten. Eben weil China nochmals richtig Gas gibt, mit Blick auf die Stimulierung mit neuen Schulden, scheint sich der konjunkturelle Ausblick aufzuhellen: „China appears to have turned a corner and its economy is gaining upside momentum, unlike the US and other OECD. If sustained this should be good news for a weakening global economy, even if it can take a few months for the ripple effect to go through.“

Na dann, genießen wir es, solange es geht.

→ The Telegraph: „China must wean itself off debt addiction if it is to avoid financial calamity, warns IMF chief“, 9. Oktober 2016

→zerohedge.com: „China As A Leading Economic Indicator“, 14. Oktober 2016

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