Klimaneutralität kann die Inflation weiter anheizen
In dieser Woche sammeln wir einige Datenpunkte zur Inflationsdebatte. Montag ging es um die Zombifizierung, gestern um die unzureichenden Investitionen in die Ölförderung, heute betrachte ich die Folgen der Elektrorevolution für die Nachfrage nach Rohstoffen – und damit natürlich auch deren Preise.
Der Telegraph hat einen Beitrag darüber:
- “We’re now on the cusp of the biggest inflation scare since the late 1970s, when the growth of the US consumer price index ballooned from around 5pc to double digits in just three years. (…) economists and central bankers keep telling themselves and each other ‘it’s different this time’ – the most dangerous words in the English language.” – bto: Nun haben wir Jahre geringer Inflation hinter uns und es ist nicht ausgemacht, dass es wirklich zu einer anhaltenden Inflation kommt. Schließlich haben wir erheblichen deflationären Druck.
- “The instant consensus was the Federal Reserve will view this inflation surge as temporary. So, no need to start reversing either ultra-low interest rates or ‘quantitative easing’ – which, since 2008, has pumped hundreds of billions of dollars of newly created money into global markets, with the pace rapidly escalating during this pandemic. That explains why the main US stock index is now 30pc higher than it was just before this virus emerged in early 2020 – despite the US economy having not yet fully recovered from successive Covid lockdowns. And where the Fed goes, the other main central banks – not least in the eurozone and the UK – will follow, continuing to print virtual money like billyo.” – bto: Und das sagen sie ja auch. Sie bleiben auf dem Gaspedal und werden die Staaten direkt finanzieren.
- “For a decade now, there has been a huge disconnect between financial markets and the real world, explained by ever more stimulus. And with central banks generating new money to buy government debt which then funds state spending, the distinction between monetary and fiscal support is seriously blurred.” – bto: Die Absicht, nun eine tragende Rolle im Kampf gegen den Klimawandel zu führen, trägt entscheidend dazu bei. Ein “guter Grund”, um die Staaten zu finanzieren.
- “While this decade-long monetary tsunami has created ‘feelgood’ stock and bond market bubbles, QE has had very negative distributive effects – making those who already own assets much richer. And far heavier debt burdens, accumulated over the last decade but particularly the last year, will now hobble medium-term growth – with state and corporate balance sheets much more exposed to risks of rising interest rates. And then there’s the looming danger that efforts to unwind or even just slow QE could provoke yet another nasty meltdown, as bloated financial asset prices collapse.” – bto: Das deflationäre Potenzial ist erheblich, denn Schulden und Vermögenspreise drücken schwer.
- “A nasty inflation spike would destroy business confidence and hammer investment, causing ‘stagflation’ – when the economy stagnates and living standards erode, as unemployment spirals. Central banks would then be forced to raise interest rates sharply, causing enormous, very painful adjustment costs, as inflation is squeezed out of the system, as the history of the 1970s and 80s show.” – bto: Das ist eben undenkbar, weil es schnell zu einem deflationären Kollaps kommen würde.
- “(…) there is evidence of inflation everywhere. Oil prices have risen 80pc over the last year – as the global economy has rebooted. Food inflation is soaring, with global wholesale crop prices up an extraordinary 40pc in May, compared with the same month last year.”
- “On top of all this, the ubiquitous ‘net zero’ agenda is inflationary, given its impact on the cost of rare earth metals and other commodities needed to wean us off fossil fuels. Copper prices have more than doubled over the last year, for instance, given that electric cars need five times more of it than conventional vehicles. Our politicians’ fixation on Elon Musk will generate long-term inflation.” – bto: Der Rohstoff-Superzyklus kann uns also zur Inflation verhelfen. Das leuchtet auch ein: Wir haben eine große Nachfrage, verknappte Kapazitäten, billiges Geld, Staaten, die auf Schulden setzen … Es ist das, was ich schon geschrieben habe: Gäbe es den Klimawandel nicht, müsste man ihn erfinden.
