“Investors rightfully worry about threats to global growth”

Das war es wohl mit dem Traum des synchronen weltweiten Aufschwungs. Eigentlich klar. Immer, wenn man davon träumt, ist man am Ende und nicht am Anfang der Entwicklung. Meint auch die FT:

• “While the US surges ahead with the help of Donald Trump’s pro-cyclical fiscal boost the eurozone is slowing, with conspicuously weak data on retail sales and, significantly, car sales. (…) Meantime China is afflicted with weaker consumption growth. Weakness is also apparent in Chinese credit markets, construction and housing.” – bto: Auf Schulden basiertes Wachstum geht auch nicht auf Dauer.
• “The resulting flight to quality has caused the dollar to appreciate as capital flees from emerging markets that are particularly vulnerable to trade hostilities. A notably striking change of trend has occurred in China, where (…) after a sustained period of foreign inflows, the second half of June saw $620m of non-resident equity outflows. So foreigners are now a contributory factor in the weakness of Chinese equities.” – bto: Und China ist im Bärenmarkt. Allerdings können es doch auch Inländer sein, die ihr Geld abziehen.
• “The Bank for International Settlements, the central bankers’ bank, estimates that the outstanding stock of US dollar credit to non-bank emerging market borrowers has roughly doubled since 2008 and currently stands at a phenomenal $3.6tn. (…) borrowing through foreign exchange swaps, which is not included in these figures, was of a similar magnitude to that visible on balance sheets. The recent reversal in international investors’ risk appetite and the associated appreciation of the dollar thus produces a very unpleasant tightening of financial conditions across the developing world.” – bto: und damit natürlich zu einem Margin Call der Extraklasse!
• “This is bad news for the advanced economies since emerging markets account for 60 per cent of global gross domestic product and have contributed more than two-thirds of global growth since 2010.” – bto: Und für wen vor allem sind das schlechte Nachrichten? Für Deutschland natürlich, das sich daraufhin im Märchen vom reichen Land wähnte und dachte, es könne sich alles leisten.
• “(…) equity markets are driven by corporate activity, not by investors. Almost 80 per cent of all US equity market purchases are now made by corporations via acquisitions or buybacks. The current surge in mergers and acquisitions has been turbo-charged by ultra-loose monetary policy which reduces the cost of capital.” – bto: Das treibt die Unternehmensverschuldung und damit natürlich wiederum die Krisenanfälligkeit des Systems.
• “It follows from this that the future trajectory of equities hinges significantly on the general state of animal spirits in business, not just quantifiable metrics such as corporate profits. (…) trade diversion resulting from the imposition of tariffs will be very damaging for GDP because of the severe impact from supply chain disruption. Yet it may be premature to suggest that these trade uncertainties will be the catalyst for an equity bear market.” – bto: klar, solange die Unternehmen kaufen.
• “(…) financial conditions remain relatively easy. The reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet would normally be expected to raise the US term premium, (…) continued large-scale central bank asset purchases in Europe and Japan may have spilled over across borders and compressed the term premium, as investors sought higher-yielding US securities. In fact foreign holdings of US debt securities have increased significantly during the current tightening episode.” – bto: was unterstreicht, wie vernetzt die Märkte sind und damit auch die wechselseitige Abhängigkeit.

Fazit: “While cash may be about to make a comeback, offering valuable capital protection, it provides precious little income for investors.”

→ ft.com (Anmeldung erforderlich): “Investors rightfully worry about threats to global growth”, 3. Juli 2018