ECB’s Mario Draghi has run out of magic as deflation closes in

Gestern morgen haben wir gesehen, dass die Deflation schon viel weiter fortgeschritten ist, als man bei reiner Betrachtung der Konsumentenpreise sieht. Umso bedenklicher ist es , wenn auch dieser Indikator auf Deflation hinweist, wie dies in der Eurozone zunehmend der Fall ist. Es beweist einmal mehr, dass die Geldpolitik solange sie nicht erfolgreich das Vertrauen in Geld zerrüttet, wirkungslos bleibt. Nur die über-Inflationierung kann die Deflation die aus Überschuldung, Überkapazitäten und Fehlinvestitionen resultiert brechen.

Der Telegraph mit einer Bestandsaufnahme der gescheiterten EZB-Politik:

  •  “Large parts of the eurozone are slipping deeper into a deflationary trap despite negative interest rates and one trillion euros of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank, leaving the currency bloc with no safety buffer when the next global recession hits.” – bto: den Punkt macht er schon lange und er stimmt.
  • ““It is abundantly clear that Draghi is played out and we’re in the terminal phase of QE. The eurozone needs a quantum leap in the nature of policy and it has to come from fiscal policy,” said sovereign bond strategist Nicholas Spiro.”- bto: Helikopter!
  • The ECB has pulled out all the stops to reflate the economy yet core inflation has been stuck at or below 1pc for three years. Officials are even more worried about the underlying trends. Data collected by Marchel Alexandrovich at Jefferies shows that the percentage of goods and services in the inflation basket currently rising at less than 1pc has crept up to 58pc.”- bto: das deutet in Richtung Deflation.
  • This is a classic precursor to deflation and suggests that the eurozone is acutely vulnerable to any external shock. The figure has spiked to 67pc in Italy, and is now significantly higher that it was when the ECB launched QE last year.”
  • “….the eurozone’s current account surplus – now running at €350bn, or 3.3pc of GDP – is feeding the deflationary dynamic. Since European banks are shrinking their balance sheets and repatriating money to meet capital rules, they cannot recycle the eurozone surplus abroad. This is creating a chronic bias towards a stronger currency.”- bto: was natürlich sehr schlecht ist und Krise und Deflation verstärkt!
  • In theory,  Mr Draghi could resort to even more radical measures but the scope is limited and he is walking through a political minefield. Public trust in the ECB has collapsed in several countries and the mood in Germany has turned toxic. The German banking and insurance lobbies have accused the ECB of destroying their business models with negative rates.”- bto: was auch stimmt aber nichts daran ändert, dass der Euro schon längst Geschichte wäre ohne die EZB. Nur eine Lösung ist es halt nicht!
  • The great macroeconomic errors were made long ago from 2010 to 2012 when drastic austerity and premature rate rises pushed the region into a double-dip recession.”
  • The eurozone no longer seems to have an activist policy. It is treading water and at the mercy of external forces. The danger is that the next global downturn will strike before the currency bloc has escaped its current malaise and before it has built up any defences against a deflationary shock.”

bto: Evans-Pritchard sieht die Lösung schon lange in einer Kombination aus Geld- und Fiskalpolitik, also Helikopter-Geld. Doch ist das wirklich die Lösung? Ich denke es ist nur ein Weg die unweigerlich erforderliche Verteilung des Schadens zu gestalten, Richtung Inflation/finanzielle Repression und letztlich dann auch Besteuerung.

→ The Telegraph: ECB’s Mario Draghi has run out of magic as deflation closes in , 9. September 2016