Die Rentner werden durch die Geld­politik ruiniert …

… zumindest jene, die selbst für ihr Alter vorsorgen. Gestern waren die kaputten Banken Thema, heute geht es um die Folgen der Geldpolitik für die Rentner. Die FINANCIAL TIMES (FT):

  • “At the present trajectory of Fed policy, the 10-year bond will be close to yielding zero per cent by election day in November. The Fed will be trying to defend the ‘zero lower bound’, a set of points on a yield curve just above negative interest rates, for short-term funding. But by the time the 10-year rate gets within 10 or 20 basis points of the ZLB, the curve is telling you that there is no reward for saving money for the long term.” – bto: Dass die Fed-Politik langfristiges Sparen nicht honoriert, ist uns schon länger bekannt.
  • “(…) fixed income investors will frantically chase yield from anywhere available. That is already happening. The Bank of America/ICE CCC index of yields on bonds one step away from default has rallied from 19.03 per cent on March 23 to 12.55 per cent on August 3. At the same time, actual defaults are rising fast. According to Fitch, 5.5 per cent of junk bonds defaulted in the year up to the end of July.” – bto: Die Investoren sind verzweifelt und gehen Risiken ein, die sie nicht beurteilen können.
  • By the end of next year, the defaults will accumulate to higher than the yield on CCC junk. The courts are so backed up by covid-related closings and slowed procedures that reported defaults and filings are far behind the reality. So extreme yield chasing will end badly.” – bto: Die zu erwartenden Verluste übersteigen den Ertrag.
  • “David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research in Toronto says: ‘As the boomers head into retirement age, what do they need? Income. What has this Fed strategy done? It has stripped the markets of income and forced investors into growth stocks. Those are long duration stocks. Retirees don’t need duration. They need cash flow.’” – bto: In meiner aktuellen Cicero-Kolumne diskutiere ich diesen Effekt auch.
  • “For the moment, the capital gains in US pension and retirement accounts created by yield chasing have masked the shortage of cash flow signalled by the curve flattening. But the impoverishing of retirees will take on a new form as currency debasement whittles away the purchasing power of the tiny yields they have bought. Or so the gold price says.” – bto: Bei uns werden die Scheingewinne noch besteuert! Vermögensabgaben müssen her …
  • “Jim Grant, editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, gives some thought to the particular sort of inflation experienced by the near-retiree: ‘I wonder if our monetary masters realise that they have created a rip-roaring inflation in the cost of retirement. The lower the interest rate, the greater the principal required. At a 5 per cent yield, a $1m nest egg delivered $50,000 a year. You need a fivefold larger egg to produce that at 1 per cent.’” – bto: Und wenn man es vorher hatte, wird es nun besteuert, weil es ja ungerechtfertigte Gewinne seien.
  • “The public pension fund beneficiary who may or may not be aware of how precarious his future has become, can look forward to higher taxes, as the actuaries and portfolio managers plead for new capital infusions from the rate payers. All in all, one must wonder just how stimulating is monetary stimulus.” – bto: Monetäre Anreize sind offensichtlich nicht so stimulierend wie erhofft. Ein weiterer Fall der Zombifizierung.
  • “To my way of thinking, the worst news for all retirement prospects is the continuing decline in the US total fertility rate, ie the number of children an American woman is likely to have in her lifetime. That has continued to fall since 2008, and is now at an all-time low of 1.75. Anything lower than 2.1 means the population is not replacing itself. Those are the workers who will not available to produce the tax revenues or corporate cash flow needed to pay for future retirees.” – bto: wie bei uns. Also müsste man die nachfolgende Generation top ausbilden und mit einer super Infrastruktur ausstatten. Müsste man …

→ ft.com (Anmeldung erforderlich): “Fed policy could leave retirees broke after crisis”, 7. August 2020