Die Notenbanken verursachen einen “deflationären Zusammenbruch”

Ich habe Stanley Druckenmiller bei bto schon früher zitiert. Er ist an der Seite von George Soros als Spekulant vermögend geworden und warnt seit Langem vor der Folge ungedeckter Verbindlichkeiten und verfallender Bildungssysteme analog den Themen hier:

→ Wie 1982 – nur mit negativem Vorzeichen

  • “I am old enough to remember when the Soviets were building a strong economy through central planning—until it crumbled and the Berlin Wall came down. And when the Japanese were eclipsing the U.S. economy through the keiretsu, large affiliated industrial companies working hand in hand with government—until Japan’s Lost Decade became two. Now it’s China’s turn, with a new leader for life who has consolidated decision-making to target his country’s economic goals in 2025 and beyond.” – bto: In der Tat könnte es China sein, von wo die nächste Krise ausgeht, weil man es eben doch nicht so steuern kann wie erhofft. Siehe Beitrag von gestern Nachmittag.
  • Capitalism is under attack, and we move further away from capitalism with each presidential administration. For eight years the Obama administration disparaged the efficacy and fairness of capitalism. Government’s influence grew in every aspect of life. The cost of regulation doubled, corporate America was attacked to engineer social equality, and our health-care system was made even more inefficient.” – bto: Oh man, was würde er wohl zu dem sagen, was hier bei uns passiert?
  • “The best tech companies in the world are in the U.S., thanks to the mix of education, immigration, finance and meritocracy. Is there a better example than Amazon? Its founder, an immigrant’s adopted son, is revolutionizing business. Capitalism is intolerant of high-cost providers, middlemen, rent seekers, and those who extract more value than their due.” – bto: was man auch dann unterschreibt, wenn man nicht von “Kapitalismus”, sondern von Eigentumsökonomik oder Debitismus spricht.
  • “The U.S. allocates an ever-increasing share of national resources to government transfer payments. I spent two years visiting universities in an effort to get young people energized by the explosion in entitlements and their decreasing share of the economic pie. I got enthusiastic responses.” – bto: Das ist der Unterschied zu uns. Bei uns würde er als neoliberal gegeißelt …
  • “(…) debt as a percentage of gross domestic product, which doubled in the past decade, is set in the decade ahead to increase to World War II levels, with no postwar reduction in sight. We will have sacrificed our future during a relatively peaceful period of economic growth because politicians can’t say no.” – bto: und bevor die Leser von bto jetzt denken, bei uns wäre es ja besser, diese Erinnerung. Auch bei uns explodieren die verdeckten Schulden weiter, siehe die neuesten Rentengeschenke…
  • “For years a mix of financial repression and central-bank intervention has led to long-term interest rates largely determined by government fiat. Bond buying by central bankers, commonly referred to as quantitative easing or QE, has become part of the Fed’s conventional tool kit. A tool once reserved for depression or financial crisis is now to be used at the first inkling of a recession.” – bto: So ist es. Geld vom Himmel regnen lassen ist die nächste Stufe. Und die kommt garantiert.
  • “(…) 40 years after economists and policy makers soundly rejected price controls in the industrial economy, we are allowing the most important price of all, long-term interest rates, to be distorted by public intervention.” – bto: Und das gilt nicht nur für die USA, sondern faktisch weltweit. Das kann nicht gut gehen.
  • “This has meant that even years after the Great Recession ended, the Fed has not only kept interest rates below inflation but accumulated an unprecedented $4.5 trillion in assets via QE. Global central banks, in part to prevent their currencies from appreciating against an overly abundant dollar, followed with more than $10 trillion of their own QE.”  bto: So kann man es schön zusammenfassen, alle gemeinsam dabei die Geldordnung zu zerrütten.
  • “The irony is that over the past 700 years, world-wide inflation averaged marginally above 1% and interest rates a little below 6% (bto: wir hatten das auch auf diesen Seiten diskutiert: → Studie: Kommt die Zinswende, dann kommt sie schnell). We are seeing unprecedented ultraexpansionary monetary policy during a time of average inflation. Moreover, the three pernicious deflationary episodes of the past century did not start because inflation was too close to zero. They were all preceded by asset bubbles.” – btoJA! Genau so ist es. Deflationäre Depressionen sind nicht die Folge der Deflation, sondern der Schulden!!
  • If I were trying to create a deflationary bust, I would do exactly what the world’s central bankers have been doing the past six years. I shudder to think of the malinvestment that has occurred. Corporate debt has soared, but most was used for financial engineering. Bankruptcies have been minimal, but who knows how many corporate zombies free money is keeping alive? Individuals have plowed ever-increasing sums into assets at ever-increasing prices.” – bto: Auch das ist so richtig!
  • “Of all the interventions by the not-so-invisible hand of government, not allowing the market to set the hurdle rate for investment is the one I see with the highest costs. Competition is better than central planning at protecting consumers. (…) The government should get out of the business of controlling long-term interest rates and canceling market signals.” – bto: richtig. Kleines Problem: Wir können es uns nicht leisten!

→ wsj.com: “Where’s the Invisible Hand When You Need It?”, 2. Mai 2018