Wie weg vom billigen Geld?

Die FT stellt die alles entscheidende Fragen: “Has the developed world finally embarked on a transition from extraordinary monetary stimulus to policy normalisation? Is the great global deflation scare finally over? And is fiscal policy set to remove the burden of keeping economies afloat from central bankers’ shoulders?” bto: Wer diese Fragen richtig beantwortet, könnte damit sehr erfolgreich Geld anlegen! Die FT versucht die Antwort zu geben:

  • “One thing at least is clear. The central bankers’ language, which is hugely important in influencing expectations, has changed. (…) In Europe Mario Draghi, European Central Bank president, said earlier this month that the battle against deflation had been won. He added that the ECB was no longer committed to use ‚all available instruments‘ to ward off deflation as economic recovery strengthened.” bto: was mit Blick auf die Schulden schon mal eine Aussage ist.
  • “(…) the Bank of Japan, has not changed its commitment to super-loose monetary policy. Yet it is safe to assume that the high point of monetary easing has passed.bto: Das finde ich eine mutige Aussage.
  • “In all these economies, to a greater or lesser degree, inflation has been converging on central banks’ targets. Inflationary pressure is increasing both from labour market tightening and the rise in energy and commodity prices. The US, Germany and the UK probably have positive output gaps, meaning that growth is faster than underlying potential.” bto: Witzig, dass die USA da ein Konjunkturprogramm machen wollen. Irgendwas passt doch da nicht zusammen. Liegt es “nur” an der zurückgebliebenen Mittelschicht?
  • “The new US president heralds another transition, that from overwhelming reliance on central bank support for the economy, to a greater fiscal contribution from tax cuts and infrastructure spending.” bto: Ja was nun FT? Sind wir aus der Krise raus oder brauchen wir noch “central bank support”?
  • “It would take monumental policy errors to bring back the deflation scare. The snag is Mr Trump’s predilection for the monumental, and the risk that his protectionist policies spark a trade war or that geopolitical brinkmanship derails the global economy.” bto: Oder in China platzt die Blase?
  • “For the central banks there are huge risks in the retreat from experimental monetary policy. At one extreme they can kill off recovery through premature tightening. Any attempt to shrink their bloated balance sheets will be a delicate business, not least because public sector debt has risen significantly since 2008. At the other extreme, central bankers chastened by their post-crisis brush with the threat of deflation could inadvertently unleash boom and bust. In short, this policy transition will have to be a nuanced affair — and creeping normalisation the order of the day.” bto: O. k., die FT weiß es auch nicht. Aber wie sollte sie? Wir befinden uns in absolut unbekanntem Territorium.

→  FT (Anmeldung erorderlich): “Tentative steps on the path to interest rate normalisation”, 19. März 2017