“The dollar can only escape bad US policy for so long”

Der Dollar profitiert sicherlich davon, dass die USA die dominierende Weltmacht sind und die anderen wichtigen Währungen wie der Euro offensichtlich noch kränker sind. Dennoch stellt sich die Frage, wie wild man es treiben kann, bis auch der Dollar unter Druck gerät. Ein Gastbeitrag in der FINANCIAL TIMES (FT) spekuliert:

  • “The US government has committed three serious policy mistakes since late 2017. (…) cut taxes just as the US economy attained full employment. (…) the Federal Reserve turned hawkish (…) Donald Trump abandoned America’s longstanding commitment to free trade by imposing a broad range of tariffs on Chinese imports. Despite these policy errors, the dollar rose.” – bto: weil alle an die USA glauben wollen. 
  • “Why can the US act in this manner with apparent impunity in the markets? The answer lies in the dollar’s status as the world’s pre-eminent global reserve currency. Such a status is like insurance — it guarantees access to finance in bad times.” – bto: Die USA sind die Weltmacht und im Unterschied zur Eurozone ein Staat.
  • “US government bonds are assigned a 0 per cent risk rating under Basel III because they are considered risk free. Rating agencies do their bit by assigning higher ratings to the US bonds than to bonds in less indebted, faster growth countries without reserve currency status. The cherry on top: central banks earmark more than 60 per cent of the world’s $11tn of forex reserves exclusively to the dollar.” – bto: Die Zentralbanken subventionieren damit die Exporte in die USA.
  • “The dollar may struggle in the medium term (…). Foreign investors accumulated large dollar positions during the era of easy money to participate in the US stock market rally. These positions will now unwind. (…) Without prospect for significant capital gains, total return in the US stock market will therefore increasingly derive from dividend yield, which is many times lower than the yield available on, say, bonds in higher yield markets, such as EM.” – bto: Noch ist es aber so, dass diese Erträge als sicherer angesehen werden.
  • The US economy is heavily indebted and unproductive, but Mr Trump (…) sees more political upside in restoring American competitiveness by inflating and debasing the dollar. This is why he leans heavily on Fed chairman Jay Powell to lower rates, supports strong pro-cyclical fiscal spending and frequently talks down the currency. Such policies are not consistent with a strong dollar.” – bto: Sie wollen auch keinen starken Dollar.
  • “(…) the last time the US pursued similar policies was in the 1970s, when Fed governors Arthur Burns and William Miller oversaw a 50 per cent decline in the dollar, 10 years of high inflation and negative real interest rates. Mr Trump’s inflationary policies will rob future generations of Americans of their savings and dollar weakness will inflict losses on central banks. It is not pretty, but, politically, inflation and currency weakness are seen as a beautiful way to solve America’s economic problems.” – bto: Interessant ist, dass Trump das seit zwei Jahren probiert, bisher ohne Erfolg. Ich hatte übrigens in meiner WiWo-Kolumne schon vor der Wahl geschrieben, dass mit Trump die Reflation kommt.
  • “If Mr Trump deliberately ‘burns’ America’s reserve currency status, his timing may be not bad at all. The trick: to avoid a disorderly dollar collapse. As long as Europe struggles with inherent tribalism and China faces deep-seated prejudices neither the euro nor renminbi pose immediate challenges to the dollar’s hegemony. The dollar looks most likely to lose ground against smaller developed market currencies and emerging market currencies.” – bto: Der Dollar ist relativ weniger “ugly” als die anderen.
  • “If the US slowdown is gentle, EM currencies will outperform higher beta developed currencies, such as the Canadian and Australian dollars and the Norwegian krone. If the US slowdown becomes more intense, there may be more near-term support for the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, gold and even bitcoin. At root, the dollar’s reserve currency status depends on American willingness and ability to lead. As America shrinks from global leadership, it is prudent that all investors begin to take currency diversification far more seriously than they have done in recent years.” – bto: Für uns im Euroraum gilt das schon lange!

→ FT (Anmeldung erforderlich): “The dollar can only escape bad US policy for so long”, 5. Februar 2019