Inflation – auch die Folge falscher Noten­bank­modelle

Die Inflation – vorübergehend oder nicht? Klar ist, dass die Modelle der Notenbanken nicht wirklich taugen. Vor allem das Konzept der Inflationserwartungen ist eher Voodoo als ernsthaft, sagt auch eine Studie der Fed:

Zunächst die Feststellung, dass die Märkte nicht besorgt sind: “This insouciance is remarkable given that the global financial system moves in close rhythm with the ebbs and flows of dollar liquidity. Emerging market companies issue bonds priced off US Treasuries. Over $200 trillion of derivatives track dollar Libor or a close equivalent. It is doubly remarkable given that US assets are priced for perfection. Credit spreads are waver-thin. The ratio of US stock market capitalisation to GDP – the Buffett indicator – reached a record 210pc in November, twice the pre-Lehman peak of 106pc peak. Either markets doubt that the Fed will deliver on hawkish talk, or they think it is already so far behind the curve that a faster bond taper scarcely keeps up with runaway prices.” – bto: Man kann es nur so lesen: Alle gehen von ewiger Liquiditätszufuhr aus und kaufen, was es zu kaufen gibt.

Doch wie sieht es mit der Einschätzung der Inflationsrisiken aus?

  • “The Bank for International Settlements has long warned that this would happen if central banks (it meant the Fed) did not break the addiction, and did not act before debt levels had become unmanageable. Moral hazard has by now gone so far that the Fed itself may be trapped.” – bto: Ich habe das auf bto  häufig besprochen.
  • “(…) the character of QE has changed. The Fed is printing dollars to fund Joe Biden’s ‘war economy’ spending plans, helping to soak up a budget deficit of 12.4pc of GDP. This is helicopter money in all but name. (…) In any case, we all wanted to break out of secular stagnation once and for all. Yet something is obviously wrong with their description of how the economy works.” – bto: Klar, das Geld fließt direkt in die Venen der Wirtschaft.
  • “It has been an article of faith that the jump in inflation – which they did not anticipate, and vehemently played down – has been caused by post-pandemic bottlenecks. This is a mathematical fallacy. ‘Supply chain problems only change relative prices. They don’t cause inflation,’ said Professor Steve Hanke from Johns Hopkins University.” – bto: Ich könnte mir aber vorstellen, dass es durchschlägt.
  • “They worship the false god of “inflation expectations”. This has come in for some mockery even at the sanctum sanctorum of the Fed itself. The institution published a paper (that) went on to state that much of mainstream economics is ‘replete with ideas that ‘everyone knows’ to be true, but that are actually arrant nonsense’. Among them is the fiction that inflation expectations give advance warning of actual inflation. They do no such thing. They reflect ephemeral moods.” – bto: Ist es nicht schön? Das Instrument, das verwendet wird, gibt kein relevantes Signal.
  • “Lord Mervyn King, ex-Governor of the Bank of England, compares the economic ideology of our time to medieval ‘scholasticism’, the bad habit of asserting precise claims from vague premises. ‘Money has disappeared from modern models of inflation,’ he told a forum at the Institute of International Monetary Research.” – bto: Warum sollte Geld auch eine Rolle spielen, wenn es um Inflation geht?
  • “‘Common sense suggests that when too much money is chasing too few goods the result is inflation,’ he said.”bto: Aber wir wissen doch, dass unsere Notenbanker überlegenes Wissen haben.
  • “The ECB can no longer deny the reality of inflation and can no longer hide behind the Fed. (…) The dirty secret in Frankfurt is that QE has turned into a fiscal rescue scheme. The pandemic has disguised this but has also added 20 to 30 percentage points of GDP to public debt ratios across southern Europe, with Italy ending last year at 158pc.” – bto: Das ist wie in den USA Helikopter-Geld.
  • “It is widely assumed that Europe has rebuilt monetary union on sturdier foundations since the trauma of the debt crisis. But the Hamiltonian leap to fiscal union never actually happened. The return of inflation could spoil a lot of wishful thinking.” – bto: Ich hoffe, dass bei meinen Lesern keine Wunschvorstellungen zunichtegemacht werden. (Anmeldung erforderlich): „Inflation is traumatic for the Fed and existential for the eurozone”, 2. Dezember 2021