“Germany’s Economy Will Be Europe’s Problem”

Nein, das ist kein Beitrag von mir. Es ist kein geringerer als Ashoka Mody der hier bei Bloomberg schon mal anfängt, den deutschen Niedergang zu beschreiben. Das Problem ist nur, wenn wir nicht mehr leisten können, ist „game over“ für die Eurozone und wenn es ganz schlimm läuft auch die EU.

Schauen wir mal, wie seine Argumentation zur Märchengeschichte passt:

  • “If (Angela Merkel’s) successor can’t pull the German economy out of its slide toward second-tier status, the union could lose its most important financial supporter.” – bto: Na, das passt ja schon mal gar nicht zum Märchen, das uns hier immer aufgetischt wird.
  • “Besieged on multiple fronts, the country is struggling to deliver higher standards of living. For nearly half the population, incomes haven’t risen in a generation.” – bto: Das ist das Problem und nicht die “Armut”, die letztlich nur als Argument dient, die Mittelschicht noch höher zu belasten.
  • “German companies (…) had long excelled in innovation, as measured by the number of patents registered in the U.S. But by 2007, Korean companies had caught up. They now register nearly double the number that their German counterparts do, thanks to huge investments in education and research. China, too, has been gaining ground, joining Korea in staking a claim to global technological leadership.” – bto: So ist es! Siehe die Mathematikleistungen, die im Sturzflug sind. Hat wichtige Ursache auch in unserer Art der Migration.
  • “As of 2015, Korean and Chinese high-school students were outperforming their German counterparts in science and, especially, in mathematics. While Korean universities have not securely established themselves in the top echelons, the two best Chinese universities rank higher than the best German universities. Indeed, measured by how often their science and technology research is cited, Chinese universities occupy the top two spots globally and four more of the top 15. No European institution is even on that elite list.” – bto: Ein reiches Land wie Deutschland kann es sich auch leisten, nur noch Sozialwissenschaftler auszubilden – am besten für die Gender-Forschung.
  • “The automotive industry exemplifies how Germany is losing its edge. The country has long enjoyed a formidable reputation for quality, performance and style. (…) In an ever-enlarging scandal, American and European regulators have caught German companies cheating on emission standards in their diesel cars. As they scramble to meet the standards, the country’s automakers are facing a broader regulatory transformation, with municipal authorities banning cars in city centers.” – bto: weil ein so reiches Land wie Deutschland auch die eigene Schlüsselindustrie platt machen kann.
  • “(…) as electric replaces internal combustion, German manufacturers remain deeply rooted in the old diesel technologyMerkel and her government have sought to ease their pain by delaying tougher emission standards and deferring bans on car use, but this is a losing battle. Germans place a premium on cleaner air. The transition to electric cars will render the technologies used by automakers and their suppliers largely obsolete, causing wide-ranging disruption.” – bto: Wir setzen den Morgenthau-Plan freiwillig mit 80 Jahren Verspätung um.
  • “Germany’s fabled banks have served the country’s small and medium-size firms well. But the banks suffer from chronically low profitability — particularly in the network of quasi-public institutions, the Sparkassen and Landesbanken, typically owned or controlled by municipalities and state governments. (…) Perhaps Germany’s greatest weakness is Deutsche Bank, whose stock price is still less than a tenth of where in stood in May 2007, ahead of the subprime crisis. In recent years, U.S. and British regulators have fined the bank hundreds of millions of dollars for improper representations and possible money laundering. It’s currently under separate investigations for assisting criminals and Denmark’s Danske Bank in laundering large sums of money. Its business model is evidently not working. If it falters, its size and global systemic connections could place a substantial burden on the government.” – bto: Ich glaube aber, dass Merkel und Co. darauf setzen, weil sie dann von ihrem Versagen ablenken können und es den Bankern in die Schuhe schieben….
  • “(…) Germany’s farthest-reaching economic policy of the past generation, the labor reforms of Gerhard Schröder, reduced incentives to invest in human capital by making it easier to fire employees. Workers became expendable, inequality increased and the sense of insecurity spread. Climbing the economic ladder became harder. Many discouraged Germans turned to the euroskeptic, anti-immigration Alternative für Deutschland party.” – bto: Das taten sie aber erst, als man mit Migranten den Lohndruck und die Umverteilung erhöhte.
  • “Germany must shed its narrow reliance on engineering excellence and bank funding, and move toward a more flexible structure where emergent technologies can flourish. This primarily requires the scale of investment in education and curriculum modernization that Merkel (…) did not deliver. Education is twice blessed: It fosters growth and gives hope to those left behind. The government must also consolidate the Sparkassen and Landesbanken into two or three banks, while severing their subsidies. And if Deutsche Bank is not cleaned up and downsized, it will surely become a public liability.” – bto: Ich denke, das passt, wäre aber zu ergänzen um Reformen des Rentensystems, weniger Abgaben, weniger Exportfokus, …
  • “Germany is in the last phase of its global prominence, a nation unwittingly sliding into the ranks of also-rans. The question is whether it’s too set in its ways, with too many vested interests, to change course.” – bto: viel zu spät. Das kann man wohl nicht mehr ändern.

→ Bloomberg: “Germany’s Economy Will Be Europe’s Problem”, 7. Dezember 2018