Gedanken zum August

Heiß ist es dieses Jahr zweifellos. Doch kann es auch politisch und wirtschaftlich heiß werden? Ich bin kein Prophet, aber es gibt Leute, die zumindest in die Richtung denken. Deshalb dachte ich mir, ich bringe einfach mal den Text von John E. Charalambakis, der bei der BlackSummit Financial Group arbeitet. Anmerkung: Ich selber finde die Liste mittelmäßig überzeugend, weil einige Ereignisse nicht so grundlegend waren. Beispiel: Landung in Sizilien war nicht so wichtig wie jene in der Normandie, denke ich.

“Here is a partial list of some world-shaking events during the month of August:

  • World War I begins (1914)
  • The 19th Amendment to the US Constitution is ratified giving women the right to vote (1920)
  • Adolf Hitler is extended superpowers by 90% of voters in Germany (1934)
  • Social Security Act is signed into law (1935)
  • Sicily is captured by the Allies signifying the turn of WWII (1943)
  • Atomic bomb explosions in Japan forced Japan to surrender. End of WWII (1945)
  • The Berlin Wall is erected. Cold war takes a decisive turn (1961)
  • March on Washington takes place and Martin Luther King delivers his speech “I Have a Dream” (1963)
  • President Johnson is extended the right for a full-blown war in Vietnam (1964)
  • The US de-links the dollar from gold. The beginning of the 1970s pains (1971)
  • The US abandons the Bretton Woods Agreement. The rules of international trade and finance need to be rewritten. The world is thrown into a crisis (1973)
  • President Nixon resigns (1974)
  • Paul Volcker is appointed Chairman of the Fed. The upswing starts (1979)
  • Solidarity, the workers’ trade union, is formed in Poland. The beginning of the end for communism is at hand (1980)
  • Opposition leader Aquino is assassinated in the Philippines. The downfall of Marcos starts (1983)
  • Paul Volcker resigns from the Fed. Era of credit overextensions and bubbles starts (1987)
  • Iraq invades Kuwait (1990, Gulf War I)
  • Soviet hard-liners stage a coup against Gorbachev. The Communist Party is suspended and the end of communism is near (1991)
  • Mexican debt crisis that became the predecessor to the 1997-’98 crisis begins (1995)
  • The financial crisis starts (2007)
  • Russia invades Georgia (2008)
  • S&P downgrades the US (2011)”
Dazu führt er dann aus:
  • “By no means do we imply that history repeats herself. However, ignoring history and not taking into account its relevance makes us perpetrators of the Heraclitus fallacy which results in poor judgment and decision-making process.” – bto: Schon Mark Twain hielt fest, dass der Oktober der gefährlichste Börsenmonat sei.
  • “In our humble opinion, credit overextensions – sometimes based on questionable and inflated collateral – created bubbles and advanced financial/paper instruments to levels which could prove to be unstainable if a correction takes place, let alone a bear market surfaces.” – bto: eine These, die auch ich teile.
  • “Recent events with Facebook and Twitter taught us that we could see declines of 20%+ in a day, which if magnified with geopolitical news or unmet expectations by more companies down the road, could translate to significant losses within a few days, let alone the turning of the momentum.” – bto: Das sehe ich genauso, nur weil die Märkte völlig überzogen waren (sind), konnte es zu einer derart starken Reaktion kommen.
  • “Negative real interest rates have become culprits of downturns in the past.” – bto: was die Abbildung sehr schön zeigt.
  • “Of course, we could mention other signs of overvaluation (CAPE, margin debt, reaching the top of the credit cycle, the VIX, the market capitalization relative to GDP and GDP growth, etc.), all of which call for caution as we may be turning a page in the credit cycle.” – bto: Man könnte auch sagen, dass der Grenznutzen der Schulden abnimmt.
  • “Even more concerning is the deception in the average investor’s mind portrayed by the gains in just a few stocks (among them Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google, the famous FAANG) which have accounted for the vast majority of gains in the market lately. The fact is that just 10 stocks accounted for all the gains in the S&P 500 this year. Again, in our humble opinion this is not healthy and a significant drop in those few stocks could become the catalyst for a major correction where other stocks that have not gained as much will lose a lot in a major downturn.” – bto: Auch diese Sicht teile ich zu 100 Prozent.
  • “Over-indebtedness, rising uncertainty and insecurity, Chinese tremors, and the tightening of monetary policy point out to a turning in investment strategy towards value-oriented securities whose fundamentals are strict and pretty conservative. – bto: oder eben Cash.