Das Wachstum des Welthandels war auch eine Folge des Kreditbooms
Eines der Rätsel der letzten zehn Jahre ist, warum sich der Welthandel nicht wieder erholt hat seit der Finanzkrise. Während viele darin ein Zeichen für zunehmenden Protektionismus sehen, kann dies auch andere Gründe haben wie zum Beispiel die fehlenden Finanzierungsmöglichkeiten der Unternehmen:
- “At the start of the previous decade, global trade was growing at almost 8 per cent a year, twice the pace of growth in gross domestic product. This year, however, the World Trade Organization expects trade to rise by a mere 2.6 per cent — the same as projected global GDP growth.” – bto: Nicht wenige sehen in diesem Rückgang einen der Hauptgründe für das geringere Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft. Insofern ist die Frage nach den Ursachen für diese Entwicklung hoch relevant. Ist es der schon vor Trump zunehmende Protektionismus? Oder gibt es andere Gründe für diese Entwicklung?
- “(…) the slowdown in trade started well before the recent eruption of protectionism. That suggests we cannot blame our current woes on the trade wars alone — although protectionism is, of course, worth fighting against. The issue at stake was set out on Tuesday by Hyun Song Shin, chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements (…).” – bto: Bekanntlich höre ich besonders aufmerksam zu, wenn sich jemand von der BIZ äußert.
- Zunächst zur Messung des Welthandels: “(…) the ratio of gross exports to net GDP (…) is particularly revealing right now, since it indicates the activity of cross-border global supply chains, or ‘global value chains’, as economists prefer to say. Complex GVCs generate multiple export ‘sales’ — and the more extensive these chains are, the higher is that gross export number relative to GDP.” – bto: und desto vernetzter die globale Wirtschaft.
- “(…) between 2000 and 2008 there was a frenzy of activity in global supply chains. (…) gross exports relative to GDP exploded by a cumulative 16 per cent, due to intense supply chain activity between China and the west. However, when the 2008 financial crisis hit, gross exports crumbled. No surprise there, perhaps.” – bto: nicht wirklich. Wir hatten es mit dem Auftakt zu einer Großen Depression zu tun, die mit Mühe verhindert wurde. Da war es klar, dass überall Risiko aus dem System genommen wird.
- “(…) what is more remarkable is that, while gross exports recovered in 2009, they have never returned to anything like the pre-2007 figure. More striking still, since 2011 gross exports have steadily declined relative to GDP (…) Why? One explanation might be that services are becoming more important in the global economy than manufacturing. Another might be technological innovation: automation has cut the cost of western manufacturing, reducing the need to outsource production to low-wage locations such as China.” – bto: Man könnte sogar behaupten, dass es in Zukunft noch weniger Handel gibt, weil man aus Klimagründen die Transporte einsparen will.
- “(…) another crucial — and overlooked — factor is finance. Companies need hefty amounts of working capital to run their supply chains (…) During the pre-2007 credit boom it was easy for companies to find working capital and trade finance. But, since then, the crisis banks have reined this in. This is partly because post-crisis regulations have made it more costly for western banks to supply such funding, but also because banks’ resources have been hit by the debilitating impact of ultra-low interest rates and the flattening yield curve.” – bto: Der Finanzsektor ist eben noch nicht wieder genesen. Auch ein schönes Beispiel für die Negativwirkung der Geldpolitik.
- “About 80 per cent of trade finance is supplied in dollars, and trade invoicing tends to be dollar-based, too. This means that dollar strength tends to affect the ability of companies in emerging markets to finance supply chains.” – bto: Und es sieht nicht danach aus, als würde sich an der Dollar-Stärke so rasch wieder etwas ändern.
- “This (…) has at least three important implications. First, it underscores the importance of studying financial channels in tandem with ‘real’ economic trends if you want to understand the global economy. Second, the research suggests that the pre-2007 credit bubble not only created a house price boom, but also helped create a trade and GVC bubble, too. Third, insofar as this bubble has now burst, it seems unrealistic to expect that the world will recreate that global trade surge anytime soon (…).” – bto: Da kann ich nur zustimmen. Generell müssen wir die Wirkung des Finanzsektors auf die Realwirtschaft besser verstehen.