UK: Brexit bleibt harmlos und langfristig geht es den Briten besser als uns

Ich bleibe bei meiner Einschätzung: Der Brexit ist ein Desaster für uns und eine Chance für die Briten. Und unsere Politiker sitzen auf dem hohen Ross der Arroganz und erkennen nicht, was da passiert. Ich zitiere heute zwei Stimmen aus England. Doch die zweite zitiert eine Studie des ifo-Instituts, die ich nicht unten anfüge:

  • “Despite a global slowdown, Britain expanded 1.4 per cent last year, recording just 4 per cent unemployment. Yet Germany and France are on the brink of recession, the Italian economy is contracting and eurozone joblessness is twice as high.” – bto: weshalb wir es uns gerade nicht leisten können, einen harten Brexit durchzuziehen.
  • “(…) there are signs of defiant economic strength once more and confidence in our long-term future. Norway’s $1 trillion (£753 billion) sovereign wealth fund, among the world’s most respected investors, has just confirmed it will boost its UK holdings.” – bto: weil die rechnen können! UK ist billig!
  • “It’s precisely because Britain will thrive after Brexit that we attracted record foreign direct investment last year, beating the US, with only China attracting more. Even British start-ups raised almost £8 billion in venture capital during 2018 – some 70 per cent more than their French and Germany counterparts.” – bto: warum auch nicht.
  • “Boeing has opened its first manufacturing plant in Europe – in Sheffield. Technology-driven investment is piling in – not just to London but to Manchester and the North East too. And, as Brexit-bashing stories about planes not flying are trumped by reality, investors from China to the Middle East are flocking to a country just judged by Forbes magazine as the ‘best place in the world to do business’ for the second year in a row.” – bto: definitiv besser als bei uns!
  • “Our relatively ‘young’ demography means the UK is on course to outstrip Germany, becoming Europe’s biggest economy. The UK boasts one of the world’s top three universities across 34 out of 48 subject areas, according to an authoritative new survey. There are seven British universities in the world’s top-40 – and not a single EU-based institution that isn’t in the UK.” – bto: und dazu noch die Weltsprache …
  • “(…) Britain will stand out as an even more attractive destination – not least compared to a eurozone made up of member states increasingly prone to economic incoherence and political extremes.” – bto: Genau, so ist es!
  • Our sovereign industrial policy should avoid ‘picking winners’, and instead be based on low and simple personal and business taxation, world-class transport and broadband connectivity, access to fast-growing international export markets and, above all, a steady supply of skilled and unskilled labour.” – bto: Das sollte Herr Altmaier mal lesen!!!

Wie Recht die Briten haben, zeigt kein geringerer als Gabriel Felbermayr (jetzt Institut für Weltwirtschaft):

  • “Embracing free trade would limit the damage caused by a “no deal” Brexit, give a bounty of cheaper imports to consumers and strengthen Britain’s hand in EU negotiations, according to top German economists. Slashing all import tariffs after Brexit would cut costs for households and businesses, giving the economy a boost, the Ifo Institute said in a new report, calling this model a ‘hard but smart’ Brexit.” – bto: Genau so muss man denken. Warum sollten die Briten nicht smart an die Sache herangehen?
  • “‘In the case of a hard Brexit, would the UK really apply the high EU external tariffs and carry out elaborate physical checks at the borders? Most studies on the economic effects of Brexit go away and come to the conclusion that hard Brexit is much more expensive for the UK than for the EU,’ said the report, written by Gabriel Felbermayr, director of the Ifo. ‘But such a strategy would be hardly rational for London and technically perhaps not feasible. By contrast, the UK would unilaterally abandon all new barriers with a ›hard-but-smart‹ strategy. This fundamentally changes the negotiation situation.’” – bto: in dem man eben das Spiel ändert und sich nicht mehr erpressbar macht.
  • “By throwing open the borders, he believes the costs of Brexit would be almost completely mitigated. Instead of charging new taxes on the two-thirds of Britain’s imports that come from the EU, this would mean cutting taxes on the one-third from elsewhere. Such action would amount to scrapping a plan that harms the economy and replace it with one that boosts growth.” – bto: Und es wäre so gesehen typisch britisch.
  • “Ifo economists estimate their ‘hard-but-smart’ deal would mean Brexit costing about 0.5pc of GDP for the EU and for the UK, with a similar cost on the German economy. Meanwhile, Ireland would be hit far harder with a loss of more than 5pc of GDP – 10 times the hit to the UK – because it would have to impose a hard EU border on its imports from Britain, even as the UK trades more openly with the rest of the world. By contrast, leaving with no deal and imposing WTO tariffs would cost Britain closer to 3pc of GDP.” – bto: Warum sollten sie das dann tun?
  • “With zero tariffs, EU households and businesses would see British shoppers and importers enjoying cheaper goods, due to lower tariffs, with no disruption at the border. It would benefit industries such as pharmaceuticals, engineering and electronics as their import costs fall, (…) ‘There would be no supply shortages because all goods and services would simply be waved through,’ said Mr Felbermayr, noting that EU rules match UK standards now and will change little in the short-term. ‘There would also be no traffic jams on the French side of the English Channel or in Ostend; the snakes would be on the British side, caused solely by the EU, which is barely more prepared for customs clearance than the British.’” – bto: Das ist ein Szenario, welches nun wirklich jedem Brexiteer gefallen muss.
  • “The overall benefit to Britain would pile pressure on the EU to quickly agree a free trade deal with the UK, the Ifo believed. (…) The EU would be under great pressure to conclude a free trade agreement with the UK in order to quickly negotiate the newly introduced tariffs in WTO-compatible fashion without having to abandon barriers to China and other third countries.”

Fazit Gabriel Felbermayr: “The analysis suggests that the EU Commission should not stubbornly commit to the London-unacceptable exit agreement, but constructively work out alternatives.” – bto: Es gibt sie noch, die Ökonomen, die neutral denken können und nicht so dogmatisch sind.

→ “Britain’s economy is set to boom and become the largest in Europe – because of Brexit”, 28. Februar 2019

→ “Britain will prosper with a ‘hard but smart’ Brexit say top German economists”, 6. März 2019

→ “Britain will prosper with a ‘hard but smart’ Brexit say top German economists”, 6. März 2019

Und hier die Studie: