“With the eurozone still struggling to coalesce around a strategy to preserve the currency union, and populist pressures building everywhere, it is highly likely that similar episodes will erupt, and disrupt, on the continent”, meint Kenneth Rogoff in einem Gastbeitrag in der FT zu den Folgen des Brexit. Genau: Es spricht viel dafür, dass sich Nachahmer finden und dies träfe, so Rogoff, die Weltwirtschaft zu einem ungünstigen Zeitpunkt. Ließen sich solche Schocks in guten Zeiten noch verkraften, könnten sie eine ohnehin schon fragile Situation verschärfen. Seine Argumentation:
- “The debt-laden Chinese economic machine is sputtering, with recent large credit injections producing only tepid growth. An ageing Europe is starting to look more and more like Japan. Japan looks like, well, Japan: anaemic. US growth is solid but hardly inspiring. Indeed, pre-Brexit Britain has been one of the brighter spots among advanced economies. So much for that now.
- “A problem across the advanced world is that measured productivity has been extremely low. One can debate why this is so and whether it is permanent. (…), the world is in the grip of a debt supercycle that began in the US, moved to Europe and now has China in its grip. But this slow growth period will not go on forever – that is, unless misguided policies are put in place to make it permanent.” – bto: Jede Politik, die das Schuldenthema nicht angeht, ist “misguided” in meiner Sicht.
- “The biggest economic risk from the Brexit vote is that it turns out to be the start of a vicious cycle of low growth and populist policies that lead to still lower growth and even more populist policies across the west.” – bto: Stimmt, das wäre aber auch ohne Brexit gekommen.
- “Not all populist prescriptions are bad right now; redistributing income through taxes and transfers is a logical reaction to growing inequality. Retreat from the liberal global trading order is not.”
- “Even if it causes a recession in the short term, it is always possible the alternative would have been worse. Remember that Gordon Brown, as chancellor of the exchequer, was vilified by some for manoeuvring to keep the UK out of the euro even though it had joined the EU. Years later, as the euro crisis unfolded, he began to look like a genius.” – bto: Ich denke dies bekanntlich auch. Die EU versagt eklatant.
- “Maybe the same will happen to leading Leavers, although that point has not yet arrived.” – bto: Die erste Reaktion der EU spricht dafür, dass sie gute Chancen haben!
“(…) policymakers should understand the magnitude of the economic risks. There is certainly no room for complacency.”
bto: Dann müsste man allerdings handeln – und das ist noch schlimmer für unsere Politiker, als die Probleme dem Nachfolger zu hinterlassen. Natürlich noch größer und unangenehmer.