Mit Trump kommt die Reflation – es geht schon los
Bereits letzte Woche habe ich geschrieben, dass mit Trump die Reflation kommt. Und schon geht es los! Wie die FT berichtet – und normalerweise bringe ich nicht zweimal die gleiche Quelle am selben Tag – steht die Reflation unmittelbar auf dem Programm. Das wäre der Game Changer. Zusammenfassung:
- “The election of Donald Trump as US president will unleash a policy shift away from monetary policy towards fiscal measures in the coming months, some of his key advisers told the Financial Times.” – bto: Damit würde er die Grundlage legen für eine Überwindung der Eiszeit.
- “(…) some members of his economic advisory team are convinced that central banks such as the US Federal Reserve have exhausted their use of super loose monetary policy.” – bto: YES. Genau so ist es, wie hier und anderswo immer wieder besprochen.
- “Instead, in the coming months they hope to announce a wave of new measures such as infrastructure spending, tax reform and deregulation to boost growth — and combat years of economic stagnation.” – bto: Und genau das fordern ja witzigerweise die linken Ökonomen. Richtig ist es auf jeden Fall.
- “Hours after the Republican stunned global markets around the world by defeating Hillary Clinton, Judy Shelton, a member of Mr Trump’s advisory team, told the Financial Times that the US central bank had created a ‚false economy‘. She reiterated that Mr Trump wanted to see someone at the helm of the Fed whose thinking was more in line with his.” – bto: Das ist erst der Beginn. Die Notenbanken werden überall die Schuld bekommen für die Krise und ihre Unabhängigkeit verlieren.
- “Mr Barrack stressed that it was time for a shift in the policy mix, (…) Anthony Scaramucci, a hedge fund manager and Trump adviser, said: “I definitely think we will have a shift from monetary policy to fiscal policy (…).” – bto: klare Message: Geldpolitik falsch und am Ende, jetzt geht es um Fiskalpolitik.
- “Some economists argued on Wednesday that the Fed may well press ahead with a quarter-point move in the absence of a violent market reaction to the election.” – bto: was natürlich nicht passen würde. Es wäre eine Kampfansage an die neue Regierung.
- “However the president cannot fire the Fed chair outright and she is not expected to leave before the end of her term. Mr Trump may have the opportunity to inject a more hawkish bent to policy by moving to fill two vacant positions on the Federal Reserve Board in 2017, however.” – bto: Ich bin auch nicht sicher, ob Trump wirklich höhere Zinsen will. Er will erst die Finanzierung der Programme und danach höhere Zinsen.
- “Public debt was currently low as a share of GDP in the US, he said, pointing to public-private partnerships as a way of enticing investment just as it does in other parts of the world. Mr Trump repeatedly during the campaign argued that the US had underinvested in its roads and ports and pledged to exceed the infrastructure plans being mooted by Mrs Clinton.” – bto: Da gibt es in der Tat einen erheblichen Bedarf in den USA. Und nicht nur dort.
bto: Setzt Trump das um, setzen sich die USA an die Spitze einer neuen ökonomischen Bewegung. Ob es alleine genügt, die Eiszeit zu überwinden, bezweifle ich. Aber einen komparativen Vorteil für die USA dürfte Trump erreichen.
→ FT (Anmeldung erforderlich): “Fed faces Trump glare ahead of policy shake-up”, 9. November 2016