Der globale Liquiditäts-Squeeze geht weiter

Mehrfach haben wir uns mit den Folgen des Ausstiegs aus der Politik des billigen Geldes beschäftigt. Wobei man klar sagen muss, dass dieser Ausstieg sehr verhalten erfolgt und eigentlich nur in den USA und China wirklich relevant ist. Dennoch sehen wir die Folgen am zunehmenden Stress in den Weltfinanzmärkten und an der Krise in der Türkei und anderen Schwellenländern.

Damit wird es nicht getan sein, denkt John Plender in der FT:

  • “(…) anything short of a global catastrophe or raging inflation, gold tends to be more responsive to movements of the dollar and US monetary policy than to multiple uncertainties. (…) In effect, the weakness of gold is telling us about a global liquidity squeeze emanating chiefly, though not exclusively, from the US.” – bto: sondern auch aus China.
  • “The parallel weakness of the copper price reflects, inter alia, a tightness of liquidity in China. As well as a general expectation that the Fed will raise interest rates again in September, the pace at which it shrinks its balance sheet is now accelerating. At the same time the repatriation of a significant part of the US corporate sector’s $2tn-plus offshore cash nest egg results in a tightening of liquidity for offshore dollar borrowers. This cross-border reversal of flows unquestionably has further to go.” – bto: Wir haben es also mit einem Entzug von Liquidität aus verschiedenen Richtungen zu tun.
  • “(…) a global liquidity squeeze unerringly finds its way to the weaker links in the world economy. Emerging markets with any combination of large current account deficits, rising inflation, politicised monetary policy or large dollar borrowings are clear cases in point. The likes of Turkey, South Africa, Argentina and Chile are thus among the biggest casualties.” – bto: Und die Frage ist, ob die Fed darauf Rücksicht nehmen wird.
  • “Mixed in with all this is a grinding change of carry trading gears. Through a long period of dollar weakness, investors borrowed in dollars to invest in higher yielding emerging market bonds — one of countless examples of the search for yield while central banks pursued ultra-loose monetary policies. The trade involved a currency mismatch that has come back to punish them severely as the dollar has strengthened over the course of this year. The risk now for emerging markets is that the liquidity squeeze becomes self-reinforcing.” – bto: was in der Tat nicht ausgeschlossen werden kann.
  • “(…) tightening liquidity in the US prompts a capital exodus from emerging markets, whose central banks and treasuries then defend their currencies by selling dollar reserves and buying local currency assets. That creates a tightening of the domestic financial system as the central bank absorbs domestic liquidity, which in turn creates more domestic economic weakness and thus potentially more capital flight.” – bto: eine einleuchtende Erklärung des Ablaufs. Ein Margin Call der besonderen Art.
  • There are vulnerabilities in the developed world, too. (…) corporate bond spreads are widening. And in the sovereign debt market Italy is in the line of fire. Once again there are country specific factors behind the vulnerability. (…) That said, an equally important reason why Italian government bond spreads widened last week was that the market is pricing in global liquidity shortages.” – bto: was nichts anderes bedeutet, als die Rückkehr der Eurokrise mit “full speed”.
  • “(…) it will be much harder for Mr Powell to put policy on hold because President Donald Trump has thrown down the gauntlet by explicitly stating that he was not thrilled by the Fed raising interest rates. Given that he has embarked on an expansionary fiscal policy when the economy is growing faster than its underlying trend rate and the labour market is tightening, the Fed cannot bottle out without conveying the impression that it is betraying its independent central banking mandate.” – bto: Das stimmt natürlich. Die Fed müsste quasi eine Krise in Kauf nehmen, um die Unabhängigkeit zu beweisen. Doch kommt die Krise, wird man ihr die Schuld geben und sie verliert dann die Unabhängigkeit.
  • “(…) the other big central banks are also set to retreat, in however measured a way, from ultra-loose policy. The odds are on a continuation of the global liquidity squeeze and no let up for emerging markets just yet.” – bto: Stimmt das, so ist eine Finanzkrise nicht mehr weit. (Anmeldung erforderlich): “Global liquidity squeeze looks set to continue”, 20. August 2018