Es ist der Wendepunkt im globalen Kreditzyklus

Die Saxo Bank – für die ich keine Werbung machen kann und will – ist zumindest in den offiziellen Verlautbarungen sehr nah an dem, was bei bto diskutiert wird. Im neuesten Marktausblick, hier via Zero Hedge, wird die Weltsicht erneut gut zusammengefasst:

1. “The debt cycle is on pause as first China and now the US have deleveraged and ‘normalised’.” – bto: Das kann man so sagen, wobei die anderen, also vor allem Japan und die EZB, noch pumpen.

2. “The stock of credit or the ‘credit cake’ has collapsed. First it was the ‘change of the change of credit’, or the credit impulse, which tanked in late 2017 and into 2018. Now it is also the stock of credit. Right now, global M2 over global growth is less than one, meaning the world is trying to achieve 6% global growth with less than 2.5% growth in its monetary base (…) the exact opposite of the 00’s and ‘10s central bank- and politician-driven model.” – bto: Und wie jeder guter Debitist weiß, keine gute Idee.

3. “This smaller credit cake is spilling over to a stronger USD (as US growth increases versus the rest of the world) and a higher marginal cost of funding (as the amount of dollars available in the credit system shrinks), leading to a mini-emerging market crisis.” – bto: sichtbar und hier diskutiert.

4. “Finally, the Turkish situation was really created by the aforementioned factors but it was made worse by President Erdogan’s autocratic and naive monetary and fiscal response. The reason this mini-crisis is not idiosyncratic is points one through three, but the market is still treating Turkey as the starting point of the current EM mini-crisis.” – bto: und das, wenn man sich die Fakten ansieht, nicht zu unrecht.

Die Schlussfolgerungen daraus:

1. A 25% chance of a Turkish default within 12 months. Erdogan is not following the three standard responses to a funding crisis: an aggressive monetary and fiscal response, seeking help from outside (read: European Union or International Monetary Fund), and/or creating a currency board/closing convertibility of TRY. The present approach contains none of these elements, which could lead to further escalation and an overall EM crisis.” – bto: Warum kommt er denn nach Berlin? Natürlich um uns mit den illegalen Migranten zu erpressen und so Geld zu beschaffen. Oder?

2.  A 25% chance a strong reversal of quantitative tightening from the Federal Reserve, supported by the European Central Bank and major central banks. The timing here could be around the Jackson Hole event at the end of August. Overall, US monetary policy and growth have peaked, and the mini-crisis together with the Trump administration’s trade tariffs is creating a need to first pause and then reverse policy lower. The world is almost coming to a standstill, after all, from the Fed’s extremely hollow tightening.” – bto: Es kann aber auch sein, dass sie es nicht machen, um ihre Unabhängigkeit von der Politik zu beweisen.

3. A 25% chance that China comes to the rescue in a fashion similar to 2007/08. China is now asynchronically easing both monetary policy and fiscal policy as growth is not only undershooting targets but doing so significantly. To me, the recent technology sector sell-off is a sign that the lows could be coming in soon. A ‘Chinese rescue’ scenario could also be called another delay, or yet more ‘pretend-and-extend’, but the data and research I am seeing from China points to a country that is acutely aware of the risks posed by growth shortfalls based on too much deleveraging relative to the country’s position in its overall economic transformation (China 2025).” – bto: O. k., China macht also doch weiter mit den Schulden. Halte ich für gut denkbar, löst natürlich das Problem nicht.

4. A 23% chance that global recession, based on points one through three, arrives by Q4’18 or Q1’19. This recession would spring from the enormous underestimation of the damage done to SMEs and MMEs by: tariffs, a rising marginal cost of capital, and a USD that is too strong for the world’s indebted markets.” – bto: Und dann haben wir wieder die Eurokrise.

5. A 2% chance that the world recovers, with this event coming to be seen as a mere blip on the radar. In this scenario, the US economy is strong enough to carry the rest of world, Italy sees 3% growth, and the EU solves Brexit… remember, nothing is impossible.” – bto: Das habe ich drin gelassen für alle Leser von bto, die mir vorwerfen, immer zu negativ zu sein! Ich würde dem sogar zehn Prozent geben. “Saxo CIO Warns “It’s Not Turkey, It’s The Global Debt Cycle”, 20. August 2018