Das erste Drama des Jahres: Brexit in der heißen Phase

Es herrscht immer noch die Erwartung, dass die Briten doch noch dem Deal zustimmen, die Hoffnung, dass es gar zu einer neuen Abstimmung und dann zum Exit vom Brexit kommt und die Gewissheit, dass der Brexit, vor allem ein „No-Deal“, nur für die britische Wirtschaft ein Problem ist. Der EU würde das schon nicht so viel ausmachen. Gut möglich, dass da die erste Krise des Jahres droht. Meint zumindest ein Brite:

  • „There is no such thing as Theresa May’s Brexit deal. The Withdrawal Agreement is merely a legal contract to pay £39bn, with the Irish back-stop for good measure. In exchange, Britain secures a transition phase with no veto rights, bound to accept all fresh EU law even when it threatens the national interest.“ – bto: So wird es auf der Insel gesehen, was erklärt, weshalb der Widerstand so ausgeprägt ist.
  • „On payment of the exit fee we also secure the privilege of starting talks on a deal. The terms of that deal must be agreed by all 27 EU states (unlike the Withdrawal Agreement). This will be a negotiating nightmare. We will face the same cliff-edge in two years, but with less leverage and unanimity to contend with.“ – bto: Auch das ist nachvollziehbar.
  • „Whatever Mrs May now says, the UK will probably end up having to accept the full single market for goods and the customs union, freedom of movement, fishery quotas, and the full writ of the European Court, in order to get any trade deal. (…) The EU will lock in goods trade, but exclude services. We will have sacrificed the biggest part of our economy for nothing, (…) Personally, I prefer to have the showdown right now.“ – bto: Und das ist definitiv das schlimmste Szenario.
  • „The first ‘recession’ casualties of Brexit have been Germany and Italy, not Britain, mirabile dictu. (…) The IFO index of manufacturing sentiment for exporters released this morning has gone off a cliff. IFO singled out a clear culprit: German exporters are beset by fears of a hard Brexit, it said. (…) Eric Schweitzer, head of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), warned that Brexit threatens massive consequences for the German economy.“ – bto: Es ist klar, angesichts von über 750.000 Arbeitsplätzen, die am Export nach England hängen.
  • „For the last two years Germany’s industrial lobbies have adopted a dismissive tone on Brexit, deeming it a sad spectacle of economic self-harm, with minor implications for them. They would not rescue Brexiteers by pushing for a friendly market deal. The integrity of the EU project matters more.“ – bto: Dabei gefährdet die aktuelle Politik in Europa die EU viel mehr. Vor allem die Weigerung, die Probleme der Eurozone zu lösen.
  • „What Deutschland Inc was not expecting is that Parliament might block the Withdrawal Agreement altogether, leading to a hard Brexit by default. This has begun to concentrate minds. People are digging out a report by the IW Institute in Cologne warning that a hard Brexit could slash German exports to the UK by 57pc.“ – bto: Daraus spricht wieder die typisch britische Haltung, dass die EU nur ein deutsches Projekt zur Sicherung eigener Hegemonie sei. Das ist Blödsinn, dürfte uns aber zu den Sündenböcken für die negativen Folgen eines harten Brexit machen.
  • „Germany is paying the price for relying on a structural trade surplus to underpin its economic model. Over a fifth of that global surplus is with Britain (€54bn). TheEU’s net exports of goods is siphoning off 4.5pc of British GDP each year, a large drain in aggregate demand.“ – bto: Das ist eine interessante Beobachtung. Es trifft eben beide Seiten und in der EU vor allem uns. Was zur Frage führt, weshalb gerade die Bundesregierung sich so hart aufstellt.
  • „The structural effect would be to shift some of that demand backinto the UK economy. This would havea cushioning effect, ceteris paribus. The EU economy may be five times as big (not seven times as often claimed) but such a switch would be a pure loss them.“ – bto: was nicht stimmt, es gäbe den „cushioning effect“ natürlich auch umgekehrt.
  • „The question for the German political class is where the pain threshold lies when so much else is going wrong beside Brexit, and whether it can risk a full-blown slump in a eurozone that no longer has any monetary defences against deflation and that is uncomfortably close to a fresh sovereign debt crisis.“ – bto: Ich sollte mein Buch auch auf Englisch bringen. Dann würden die Briten verstehen, dass ökonomischer Sachverstand bei unseren Politikern als überflüssig bis schädlich angesehen wird.
  • „Many of the latest problems track monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve. Liquidity is draining away in Europe’s offshore lending markets for dollars, squeezing European lenders. Deutsche Bank’s share price has halved this year to an all-time low of €7.64.“ – bto: Sollten wir wirklich die Deutsche Bank retten müssen, ist unsere Glaubwürdigkeit als solide Instanz in der EU hinüber. Dann gibt es kein Halten mehr.
  • „The surging dollar and a doubling of LIBORrates this year have set off an emerging market crunch. China’s slowdown is deepening. Tentative monetary and fiscal stimulus have failed to gain traction. Capital Economics said the true level of growth in China has dropped to 5.5pc – based on proxy measures – and will continue falling to 4pc by mid-2019before touching bottom. This is a Chinese recession.  Germany is taking the full brunt, as it typically does in global economic downturns. The country is highly leveraged to the world’s trade and industrial cycles.“ – bto: Und wir haben den Wohlstand verschwendet, statt vorzusorgen.
  • „By curse of timing it comes at a moment when the German car industry is reeling from the diesel conspiracyand the systemic threat of electric cars, with Donald Trump’s threat of 25pc tariffsstill hanging dangerously.“ – bto: Das Märchen vom reichen Land endet bitter.
  • „Alliance Bernstein says Germany’s car companies are trading at levels hinting at bankruptcy risk. Plainly they are in no fit state to cope with a full-blown Brexit shock. That would bring the guillotine down on 750,000 car exports. Britain is Germany’s biggest single car market – bigger than the US or China – and an integral part of its production system. (…) My fear is that Berlin will try to head off this threat by offering Theresa May just enough legal pomade on the Irish back-stop to slide the Withdrawal Agreement through Parliament, without really changing the substance.“ – bto: Und welches diplomatische Genie hat er da bei uns identifiziert? Mir fällt die Vorstellung schwer.
  • „(…) the EU will grind us down mercilessly over the transition phase, running the clock until our backs are pressed against the wall and we forced to yield to all demands on abject terms. (…) the EU will exploit the UK vassal status as a taker of EU law and regulations to inflict grave harm, (…) a truly villainous EU machine in Brussels (is) determinedto ensure that Brexit is agonizing, unworkable, and punished.“ – bto: Das kann ich mir vorstellen und ich denke, es ist ein grober Fehler, für den eigentlich die Franzosen verantwortlich sind.
  • „On cue, the Commission announced with some relish that its no-deal contingencies will be very damaging for UK financial services. (…)  the EU cares not a whit about its good faith commitment as a WTO member to avoid impediments to trade, or its legal obligations under the Vienna Convention and Article 4 of its own Lisbon Treaty.“ – bto: Nein, es geht um Abschreckung.
  • A no-deal outcome is a big risk, but the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement pose an even bigger risk. We are not so weak, and the EU is not so strong, that submission is necessary. The sooner we regain our nerve and break completely free from this tightening trap, the safer we will be.“ – bto: Bleibt es so, dürfte es schon sehr bald ausgesprochen turbulent werden.