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China: Alle Blasen platzen – irgendwann

Bereits 2014 habe ich an dieser Stelle vor der chinesischen Schuldenwirtschaft nach westlichem Vorbild gewarnt:

→ China – Schuldenwirtschaft nach westlichem Vorbild

Nun ist es wohl so weit. Der Telegraph beschreibt die Situation:

  • „China risks tipping into a classic liquidity trap. Cai Fang, a rate-setter at the central bank, has called for a $550bn blast of helicopter money – or high-powered QE injected into the veins of the economy – in order to stop a deflationary psychology taking hold as frightened households retrench.‘The most urgent imperative now is to stimulate consumer spending. It is necessary to use all reasonable, legal, and economically viable channels to put money into people’s pockets,‘ he wrote on China Finance 40, the opinion forum of the elite.“ – bto: Zumindest gibt es also diese Diskussion in der chinesischen Führung.
  • „It is far from clear that Xi Jinping has recognised the destructive mechanisms at work in China, or that economists in the West are alert to the global dangers through multiple channels of transmission, starting with an exchange rate shock. The yuan has fallen to a sixteen-year low against the dollar. The East Asian currency bloc is falling in tandem, pushing the euro trade-weighted index to a record high. The effect is to bludgeon a eurozone economy already in a deep industrial recession. The cheaper the yuan, the greater the tsunami of Chinese electric vehicles, machinery, or wind turbines, heading for Europe.“ – bto: Das dürfte den Druck auf Deutschland besonders erhöhen.
  • „The giant developer Country Garden, with total liabilities of $200bn, is days away from default after missing payments on dollar loans issued in Hong Kong. Ting Lu and Jing Wang from Nomura estimate that the company has already received payment for a million properties that have yet to be built. Like other developers relying on China’s “pre-sale” model it depends on a constant flow of new buyers to cover old debts.The buyers have dried up. The CRIC Research Centre says sales in July by the top-100 developers were just 30pc of levels three years ago.“ – bto: … ein Ponzi-Schema.
  • „The developers have debts of $5 trillion. By comparison, this is six times greater than America’s $800bn subprime property debt on the eve of the Lehman crisis. They rely heavily on the $3 trillion ‚trust‘ segment of the shadow banking nexus known, which has no lender of last resort. These trusts are starting to blow up.“ – bto: Damit schlägt es doppelt auf die Ersparnisse der Bürger durch.
  • „The property bubble is the Ponzi scheme that keeps China’s local governments afloat. They rely on property for 38pc of total revenue, mostly from land sales. These sales have collapsed. The finance ministry says local government income fell 21pc in the first half of 2023. This must lead to a severe fiscal squeeze unless Beijing comes to the rescue with a huge stimulus package stimulus. The signs are that Xi Jinping is still reluctant to do so. His allies have published a media note entitled ‚Clarifying the Eight Misconceptions about Expanding Domestic Demand‘.“ – bto: … was in Kombination mit den Schulden in der Tat zu einer deflationären Depression führen könnte.
  • „The growth rate of total factor productivity has fallen to the levels of mature economies before China is mature. The country is no longer on the same trajectory as Japan, Taiwan, and Korea at a comparable point of development. The nail in the coffin is an 87pc fall in foreign direct investment last quarter, the lowest level since records began in the 1990s. That is Xi’s legacy.Capital Economics thinks China’s (true) trend growth will drop to 2.8pc over the late 2020s. If so, China will not surpass the US this decade, and will then fall back as the demographic decline gathers pace.“ – bto: Das wird China nun nicht unbedingt „friedlicher“ machen.

→ telegraph.co.uk: „China’s property crash is becoming more dangerous by the day“, 17. August 2023