War es das mit dem globalen Wachstum?

Die Weltwirtschaft erholt sich vom Corona-Schock. Die staatlichen Ankurbelungsprogramme wirken. Noch. Zunehmend kommen jedoch Zweifel auf, ob es das wirklich schon war mit dem Wachstum. Denn es geht nicht um das Niveau der Ausgaben, es geht um die Veränderung. Letztere treibt die Wirtschaft voran. Zwei exzellente Medien beschäftigen sich mit dem Thema.

Zunächst fasst The Economist zusammen:

  • Beginnen wir mit der Reaktion der Finanzmärkte: “America’s Treasuries are a haven in uncertain times. In March investors sold them off as they took fright at rising inflation, pushing the ten-year Treasury yield up to 1.7%. But it has slowly slipped back since, as doubts about the continued strength of the economic recovery have taken hold. The growth scare seemed to intensify on July 19th, when the ten-year yield dipped to 1.19%. The s&p 500, America’s main stock index, fell by 1.6%, with smaller companies hit hardest. Commodity prices also took a knock. That of Brent crude oil fell by 7% to $69 a barrel. The dollar strengthened against other rich-world currencies.” – bto: also wieder etwas Vertrautes. Die Märkte gehen in Anleihen, weil sie die Inflation nicht sehen, sondern den deflationären Druck.
  • “(…) Britain, the first big, rich country to be hit hard by the Delta variant, is telling a different story. Our ‘economic-activity index’ for the country, using Google data on visits to workplaces, transit stations and sites of retail and recreation, has dropped by about 5% since peaking in June (and there is little sign of greater mobility from July 19th onwards, when England lifted all domestic covid-19 restrictions). The British story seems likely to set a trend to a degree.” – bto: eine sich abschwächende Erholung wegen der Fortsetzung der Corona-Lage?
  • “The hardest sort of data—releases from official statistical agencies—do not yet reflect the impact of rising covid-19 infections. But they also give contradictory signals. Measures of economic “surprise” in activity indicators (ie, a comparison of the published numbers with economists’ forecasts) still look fairly positive, especially in Europe. (…) But there have also been disappointments. In America, for instance, the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment declined in July, against expectations of an increase.” – bto: Wir dürfen nicht vergessen, dass sich an den anderen Problemen der Weltwirtschaft nicht viel geändert hat.
  • Fazit:Governments’ emergency stimulus programmes are coming to an end. There are growing fears that, as the Delta variant of the coronavirus spreads, the resurgence in cases could impinge on economic growth (…).” – bto: Und dann haben wir wieder unsere Probleme, allerdings mit deutlich aggressiveren Regierungen (mit noch höheren Schulden).

Die FINANCIAL TIMES (FT) hat einen Gastkommentar mit einem ergänzenden Blick:

  • “Though economists expect the reopening boom in the global economy to roar through the coming quarters, there are two increasingly pressing reasons to question its strength and length: China and the US. The two superpowers are the locomotives of global growth, but cracks are appearing in their economic engines.” – bto: Nicht zu vergessen, es sind China und die USA, die ziehen. Die EU schon lange nicht mehr.
  • “In recent years, as the old economy industries of the commodities and manufacturing sectors have become mired in debt and decay, China’s boom has been sustained by a new economy, concentrated in the tech sector. Over the past decade, the digital economy’s share of China’s GDP has quadrupled to a staggeringly high 40 per cent.” – bto: Das ist eigentlich eine sehr gute Nachricht, hat aber erhebliche Wirkungen auf das soziale Gefüge Chinas.
  • “But tech giants could pose a standing challenge to the ruling party at a time when it tries to revive the socialist values of early revolutionary years. China had no tycoon worth more than $10bn a decade ago; now it has nearly 50. Over the past year, China generated 238 new billionaires, more than twice as many as any other country. Most of that wealth arose in tech.” – bto: und deshalb auch die Maßnahmen der Regierung gegen diese Unternehmen.
  • “(…) at times state managers step in to restrain capitalism when its apparent excesses — of corruption or debt bubbles or inequality — grow too glaring for their liking. (…) This time the stakes appear higher. It’s hard to see how any other sector could make up for a shock to the digital economy, and the damage is already clear. Since the crackdown began, the market cap of Chinese tech has fallen by a third, or around $1tn. The rise of new tech unicorns has dried up. And it’s not clear that Beijing is prepared to back off yet, given how powerful the tech giants have become and the widespread belief that data is the new gold.” – bto: Nun könnte man sagen, dass das ja gut für den Westen ist, wird doch der Wettbewerb geschwächt. Da bin ich mir aber nicht so sicher.
  • “Many forecasters assume that the global recovery will get a huge boost from the $2.5tn in additional savings that Americans squirrelled away during the pandemic and will presumably now spend as the economy fully reopens. However, that is not how consumers behaved in the past. (…) excess savings have been released in spending sprees only in nations that were defeated and destabilised in war, where consumers feared their currency might soon be rendered worthless. In the US, the last major episode of forced saving came under rationing in the second world war. America won and, rather than spend wildly after the war, Americans sat on those extra savings for years.” – bto: Und angesichts der immer noch hohen Privatverschuldung wäre es sogar gut, wenn die US-Haushalte ihre Schulden reduzieren würden.
  • “The US is also approaching a ‘fiscal cliff’. New government spending will plummet sharply in coming months. Most economists are banking on extra strong consumption growth to pick up the slack. But history is not on their side. After a stimulus sugar rush, growth tends to fall back quickly.” – bto: Und – wie gesagt – es kommt auf das Delta an.
  • Fazit FT: “(…) it is time to ponder the possibility that the economic boom will prove more transitory than expected.” – bto: Das ist eine ganz schlechte Nachricht für die Eurozone.

economist.com (Anmeldung erforderlich): „The anatomy of a growth scare“, 24. Juli 2021

ft.com (Anmeldung erforderlich): „The two big reasons to doubt the global boom, 19. Juli 2021