“The End Of A Bubble?”
Ich habe an dieser Stelle vor einigen Tagen einen → Beitrag von Gavekal verlinkt, in dem es um die echte Inflationsrate in den USA ging. Der Beitrag löste eine interessante Diskussion aus. Dabei war die Mehrheit der Leser der Auffassung, dass es sehr wohl eine deutliche Inflation gäbe und die Furcht vor einer Deflation nicht begründet sei. Ich denke, es besteht zumindest in einigen Märkten/Teilen der Ökonomie wirklich ein deflationärer Druck, der es Unternehmen schwerer macht, mit der eigenen Schuldenlast umzugehen. Aber darum geht es heute nicht. Stattdessen stellt sich erneut die Frage, wie die Aussichten für die Zinsen sind:
- “Ask three economists for the definition of a financial bubble, and you will be lucky to get fewer than four different answers. Even in our little shop, we like to make distinctions between bubbles in productive assets (US railroads, the internet, fiber optic cables, shale gas wells …) and bubbles in unproductive assets (gold, tulips, Japanese land, Florida condos…). We also like to make distinctions on how bubbles are financed: equity (good) or debt (bad). All of which brings us to today’s bubble in government bonds across most of the OECD.”
- “Since its infancy, Gavekal has broadly been a “deflationary-biased” firm. (…) the combination of robotics, a weak oil price, renminbi internationalization, and unnaturally low interest rates would lead to an overly deflationary environment (…).”
- “But there are ‚lows in bond yields‘, and then there is the reality of a third of outstanding OECD government bonds offering investors negative yields. This latter proposition makes no financial sense whatsoever.”
- “(…) one candidate for the definition of a financial bubble would be a) The establishment of prices that, by any historical measure, make no sense whatsoever. b) The broad financial community, although acknowledging that these prices do not make sense, persuades itself, perhaps through the use of new valuation metrics (remember market cap per eyeball?), that in some greater scheme of things they can in fact be rationalized.”
- “In all our recent meetings, clients have been happy to acknowledge that negative yields make no sense. But they immediately temper their remarks by pointing out that with the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan now committed to ‚QE infinity‘ programs, with deflation set to linger for ever, with adverse demographics and the retiring baby boomers’ hunt for yield, then the scope for a yield pull-back is limited at most. (…) This is bubble- rationalization at its best.”
- “Meanwhile, of course, the bond bubble seems to be cracking:
- Against most expectations, and on no particular news, 10-year Japanese government bond yields have reversed from the -25bp JGBs were charging a few weeks ago, and are almost back in positive territory.
- Since the beginning of the summer, in most markets financials have been among the best performers, which makes sense if yield curves are set to steepen again.
- With the bulk of the commodity collapse now firmly in the rear view mirror, inflation data is starting to creep higher once again (so far notably Chinese producer prices and Indian wholesale prices). This is a trend that will most likely accelerate in the coming months and which raises the question how the “algos” responsible for so much of today’s marginal trading will react to upside inflation surprises. Our guess is not well, since so much of today’s market mantra is that inflation, and thus rates, will stay low forever.”
- “(…) as yields start to move higher, where can investors hide? At this point, fully-valued equity markets whose earnings continue to decelerate are wholly dependent on low interest rates to maintain above average valuations. Fortunately, not all segments of the global equity markets are currently trading at above average valuations: banks, insurance companies, energy stocks, deep cyclicals and emerging markets are all trading at relatively attractive valuations (…).”
bto: Das ist zumindest bedenkenswert. Ich selber bin dennoch kein Fan von Banken und Versicherungen, weil ich eben nicht die große Inflation sehe, zumindest nicht so schnell und immer noch eher die Variante Schuldenschnitt erwarte.
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