STICHWORTE: • • • • •von

Popu­lismus ist auf dem Vor­marsch

Am Sonntag (5. November 2023) geht es im Podcast unter anderem um Populismus. Ray Dalio vom Hedgefonds Bridgewater hat mit seinem Team schon 2017 darüber geschrieben:

  • „Populism is not well understood because, over the past several decades, it has been infrequent in emerging countries and virtually nonexistent in developed countries. It is one of those phenomena that comes along in a big way about once a lifetime—like pandemics, depressions, or wars. The last time that it existed as a major force in the world was in the 1930s, when most countries became populist.“ – bto: Und wir wissen, wohin das geführt hat.
  • „To help get a sense of how the level of populist support today compares to populism in the past, we created an index of the share of votes received by populist/anti-establishment parties or candidates in national elections, for all the major developed countries (covering the US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) all the way back to 1900, weighting the countries by their population shares. We sought to identify parties/candidates who made attacking the political/corporate establishment their key political cause. Obviously, the exercise is inherently rough, so don’t squint too much at particular wiggles. But the broad trends are clear. Populism has surged in recent years and is currently at its highest level since the late 1930s(…)“ – bto: Meine Erwartung wäre, dass wir vor einer weiteren Welle stehen, gerade auch mit Blick auf den migrantischen Populismus in Europa.

Quelle: Bridgewater

  •  „(…) we believe that populism’s role in shaping economic conditions will probably be more powerful than classic monetary and fiscal policies (as well as a big influence on fiscal policies). It will also be important in driving international relations. Exactly how important we can’t yet say.“ – bto: … was gerade angesichts der schon bestehenden Konflikte die Welt nicht friedlicher machen wird.
  • „Populism is a political and social phenomenon that arises from the common man being fed up with 1) wealth and opportunity gaps, 2) perceived cultural threats from those with different values in the country and from outsiders, 3) the ‚establishment elites‘ in positions of power, and 4) government not working effectively for them. These sentiments lead that constituency to put strong leaders in power.“ – bto: Das können wir hier sehr gut sehen.
  • „Populist leaders are typically confrontational rather than collaborative and exclusive rather than inclusive. As a result, conflicts typically occur between opposing factions (usually the economic and socially left versus the right), both within the country and between countries. These conflicts typically become progressively more forceful in self-reinforcing ways.“ – bto: Auch das konnten wir in den letzten Jahren bereits beobachten.
  • „Within countries, conflicts often lead to disorder (e.g., strikes and protests) that prompt stronger reactions and the growing pressure to more forcefully regain order by suppressing the other side. Influencing and, in some cases, controlling the media typically becomes an important aspect of engaging in the conflicts. In some cases, these conflicts have led to civil wars. Such conflicts have led a number of democracies to become dictatorships to bring order to the disorder that results from these conflicts. Between countries, conflicts typically occur because populist leaders’ natures are more confrontational than cooperative and because conflicts with other countries help to unify support for the leadership within their countries.“ – bto: Hier sehe ich sogar die Gefahr zwischen China und den USA.
  • „In other words, populism is a rebellion of the common man against the elites and, to some extent, against the system. The rebellion and the conflict that comes with it occur in varying degrees. Sometimes the system bends with it and sometimes the system breaks. Whether it bends or breaks in response to this rebellion and conflict depends on how flexible and well established the system is. It also seems to depend on how reasonable and respectful of the system the populists who gain power are.“ – bto. Siehe Italien.
  • „In monitoring the early-stage development of populist regimes, the most important thing to watch is how conflict is handled—whether the opposing forces can coexist to make progress or whether they increasingly ‚go to war‘ to block and hurt each other and cause gridlock.
  • „Classic populist economic policies include protectionism, nationalism, increased infrastructure building, increased military spending, greater budget deficits, and, quite often, capital controls.“ – bto: All das wird uns in den kommenden Jahren beschäftigen.
  • „In summary, populism is…Power to the common man…
  • Through the tactic of attacking the establishment, the elites, and the powerful…
  • …Brought about by wealth and opportunity gaps, xenophobia, and people being fed up with government not working effectively, which leads to:
  • …The emergence of the strong leader to serve the common man and make the system run more efficiently…
  • …Protectionism…
  • …Nationalism…
  • …Militarism…
  • …Greater conflict, and…
  • …Greater attempts to influence or control the media.“

→ economicprinciples.org: „Populism: The Phenomenon“, 22. März 2017