Morgan Stanley: “This Will Not Be The Wipeout Scenario That Permabears Have Been Warning About For 8 Years”

Die Frage der Fragen: normale Korrektur oder doch die große Anpassung der schon seit Jahren überzogenen Bewertungen? Morgan Stanley meint, dass es nicht die große Bereinigung geben wird, die „Perma-Bären“ wie Edwards (und Stelter?) seit Jahren erwarten.
Zunächst zur Messung der Inflationsrate: “(…) due to the many criticisms and changing methodologies of the consumer price index as a true measure of inflation, we use the price of gold as a very good proxy of the true value of a dollar over long periods of time.bto: Da kann man nicht widersprechen. Natürlich ist Gold über lange Frist ein viel besserer Maßstab für die Inflationsrate als die offizielle Statistik, die darauf ausgerichtet ist, die Inflationsrate möglichst gering anzugeben.

Dabei geht es aber um etwas anderes, nämlich um den S&P in realen Zahlen, also bereinigt um die Inflation. So sieht das Bild aus:

Quelle: Morgan Stanley, via Zero Hedge

 bto: Na, wenn man das Bild anschaut, kann man doch nur sagen, „thy sky ist he limit!“.

  • “(…) we think that this chart does an excellent job of illustrating the length and real price damage levied by the three secular bear markets noted above as well as the persistence of the two long and steady secular bull markets from 1942-66 and 1980-2000. We strongly believe that a third secular bull market began in 2011, not 2009.” bto: Also, in Gold gemessen steht uns ein wahrer Bullenmarkt erst bevor. Wie muss man sich das vorstellen? Entweder Gold kollabiert, weil es niemand mehr will oder die Inflationsrate treibt die Aktien mehr als Gold oder aber es wird alles super. Die Wirtschaft erholt sich, es gibt kein Problem mit Schulden und steigenden Zinsen und es stehen uns gute Jahre bevor. Letzteres wäre wirklich schön!
  • “(…) Morgan Stanley hoped to show is that while a cyclical bear market (i.e., a 20% drop from recent highs) is imminent, it is taking place in the context of a still strong secular bull market. (…) On average, the cyclical bear markets that occurred during secular bull markets were down only 25%whereas cyclical bear markets during secular bear markets were down almost 50%, on average.” bto: also. Es wird wohl einen kleinen Bärenmarkt geben, diesen aber im Kontext eines neuen Bullenmarktes. Ich kann mir den nur im Kontext massiver monetärer Intervention der Notenbanken vorstellen. Und dann müsste doch Gold auch steigen?
  • “This is a massive difference that investors should consider when preparing for the next cyclical bear market”, which the investment bank thinks may have already begun with the topping in valuations and sentiment earlier this year, even though we have not yet made the price highs at the index level.” bto: Das heißt, man kann das aussitzen. 

Quelle: Morgan Stanley via Zero Hedge
  • “(…) even though there has not been a 20% correction in the
S&P 500 since the financial crisis, one can spot two distinct bear markets in recent history when using the MSCI All Country World Index, which reveals a 26% correction in 2011 when both Europe and Japan had a double-dip recession and a 21% correction in 2015-16 during the global recession led by China’s hard landing and the collapse in the commodity/industrial and manufacturing complex.” bto: Also passt alles zur Story!

 Quelle: Morgan Stanley via Zero Hedge

  • So could we be on the verge of another 20%+ cyclical bear market for the MSCI All Country World Index? (…)”we think the answer is yes, but only after we make one more price high later this year.” bto: zuvor noch ein weiterer Boom an den Märkten? Das wäre spannend.
  • “(…) the greatest weakness will likely come from the former leaders which include tech, financials and consumer discretionaryin the US. US markets should lead in this decline because the earnings comparisons are the most difficult and financial conditions are tightening the most. Therefore, international developed markets should outperform in US dollar terms.” bto: In “Dollar Terms” könnte auch eine weitere Aufwertung des US-Dollars bedeuten.
  • “(…) we think that this could end up being another unsatisfying bear marketin the context of how most think about the end of the cycle. Whenever one invokes the words ‘late-cycle’ or ‘end of the cycle’, the natural response is to want to sell everything, especially since memories of the 2008-09 or 2000-02 corrections are still vivid. Instead, we envision a 1-2-year consolidation with 10-20% price swings and concentrated pain in certain sectorsthat are either overbought, expensive or fundamentally challenged. This will not be the wipe-out scenario that some of the perma-bears out there have been warning about for the past eight years.” bto: eben ,weil wir uns erst am Anfang eines langen Bullenmarktes befinden. Letztlich kann man es nicht vorhersagen, weshalb einseitige Positionierungen – egal in welche Richtung – nicht angezeigt sind!

Dazu dann Zero Hedge: “To this, the permabears have only one response: the only reason the market appears to be in a secular bull cycle, is because central banks have inflated not one, not two, but three consecutive asset bubbles, at a cost of some $250 trillion in global debt, and the only real variable is whether they will be willing – and able – to blow a fourth, and final, asset bubble. If not, no amount of rhetorical goal-seeking will prevent the crash that is coming and that will make the Great Depression seem like a dress rehearsal.” bto: Und genau deshalb werden sie alles versuchen, um doch noch eine Blase aufzupumpen.