Kehrt die Vernunft in der Geld­politik zurück?

Die FINANCIAL TIMES (FT) schreibt von der „Rückkehr der Vernunft“ in der Geldpolitik. Hier muss ich gestehen, dass ich nicht so sehr davon überzeugt bin. Es kehrt die Vernunft nicht zurück, wir sammeln eher Kraft für die nächste Phase. Angesichts der Alternativen zur Fortsetzung der Politik des billigen Geldes ist klar, wofür die Notenbanken sich am Ende entscheiden werden.

Dennoch lesen wir mal, was die FT denkt:

  • It took a devastating combination of the pandemic, war in Ukraine and a central banking U-turn on inflation to do it. Since the turn of the year the rules of the game in markets have been dramatically upended. Gone are those notorious acronyms Fomo (fear of missing out), Tina (there is no alternative to higher risk equities and credit) and BTD (buy the dip). (We are now) clearly in a bear market. At least sanity appears to be returning to central bank policymaking.“ – bto: Wir befinden uns also in einem Bärenmarkt, aber immerhin kommt die Geldpolitik zur Besinnung.
  • Having offered no convincing rationale for the continuation of their asset buying programmes long after the 2007-09 financial crisis, the central banks are now committed to raising rates and shrinking their balance sheets. That holds out the hope that after years of overblown asset prices and mispricing of risk, the information content of market prices will once again become meaningful.“ – bto: Ich teile die Hoffnung des Autors nicht. Ja, es wäre sehr wünschenswert, aber es ist unrealistisch. Es ist nur eine Frage der Zeit, bis die Notenbanken wieder voll auf das Gaspedal steigen.
  • The biggest indication of a semblance of normality is the decline in the number of negative yielding bonds across the world, down to about 100 compared with 4,500 such securities last year in the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Negative Yielding Debt index. So the morally hazardous practice of paying people to borrow is on the way out, and the need to search for yield regardless of risk is becoming less intense.“ – bto: Das gilt auch, obwohl die Realverzinsung deutlich negativ bleibt.
  • „The big question is whether this all marks the end of asymmetric monetary policy (bto: der Begriff stammt von der BIZ, die seit Jahren diese asymetrische Haltung der Notenbanken kritisiert und darin eine erhebliche Ursache für Verschuldung, Blasen und Krisen sieht) (…) In the short term the answer is yes, at least in the US.“ – bto: Die Frage ist, was ist in der Eurozone zu erwarten? Ich bin skeptisch. Und wie lange halten sie es durch? Da bin ich noch skeptischer!
  • „(…) it is important to note that the real policy interest rate remains negative. (…) So while policy is being tightened it could scarcely be called tight.“ – bto: Das kann man wohl sagen!
  • The risk of policy error is high (…) The fear is that central banks may precipitate a recession at a time when global debt is at record peacetime levels. According to the Institute for International Finance, a trade body, global non-financial corporate debt rose from $81.9tn to a phenomenal $86.6tn between the third quarter of 2020 and the same quarter in 2021. This sum, equivalent to 97.9 per cent of gross domestic product, suggests a greater than usual corporate sensitivity to interest rate increases and a serious vulnerability.“ – bto: Es sind auch die privaten Haushalte hoch verschuldet und die Vermögensmärkte davon abhängig.
  • It may anyway take a recession to bring inflation back under control. (…) The global economic picture is now darkening further in the wake of the pandemic because of China. (…) This is bad news for, inter alia, continental European exporters who are also coping with the loss of the Russian market. The eurozone economy will be hard pressed to avoid stagflation.“ – bto: die aber die direkte Folge der EZB-Politik ist, wie wir wissen.
  • The Fed remains confident it can engineer a soft landing. That will require luck as well as judgment, which has not been much in evidence of late. There remains a real possibility of recession, which could breed panic in central banks and thus a return to asymmetric monetary policy and yet more quantitative easing.“ – bto: Genau darauf setze ich, es wird zum ultimativen inflationären Impuls kommen.