Es gibt auch Kriti­ker von Bidens Schulden­politik

Gestern hatten wir an dieser Stelle den optimistischen Reflations-Case. Zwar wurden auch dort die möglichen Nebenwirkungen der Politik angesprochen, aber im Kern blieb es eine zuversichtliche Analyse.

Den Gegenpunkt macht der Chief Investment Officer von Morgan Stanley in einem Gastbeitrag für die FFINANCIAL TIMES (FT): “Dear Joe Biden, deficits still matter”, lautet der Titel: 

  • “Warnings that rising deficits will reignite inflation and undermine the dollar have proved wrong for decades, so deficit hawks are increasingly easy to mock as crotchety old scolds. The new view, expressed by leading figures from the IMF, academia and media, is that with inflation long dead and interest rates at record lows, it would be unwise, even irresponsible, not to borrow to boost the economy. The amounts — billions, trillions — hardly matter, especially not for the US, which still has the world’s most coveted currency.” – bto: So ist es auch in der Diskussion hierzulande (wo ich der Meinung bin, dass wir zum einen kein Problem haben und zum anderen im Euro mit Ländern zusammen sind, die sicherlich nicht sparen werden).
  • “This view overlooks the corrosive effects that ever higher deficits and debt have already had on the global economy. These effects, unlike roaring inflation or the dollar’s demise, are not speculative warnings of a future crisis. There is increasing evidence, from the Bank for International Settlements, the OECD and Wall Street that four straight decades of growing government intervention in the economy have led to slowing productivity growth — shrinking the overall pie — and rising wealth inequality.” – bto: Das schreibt ein Banker. Weniger Wachstum, einfach weil Schulden unproduktiv verwendet werden und wegen der Zombies. Ungleichheit wegen des Vermögenseffekts tiefer Zinsen.
  • “We calculate that last year the US and other developed nations committed a median sum equal to 33 per cent of their gross domestic product to stimulus, shattering the mark of 10 per cent set back in 2008. Those figures do not include the Biden plan, which will bring total US fiscal stimulus to fight the pandemic to more than $5tn, more than the GDP of Germany or Japan. That’s a lot for an economy to absorb in less than a year, and Mr Biden plans a second, more ambitious spending proposal next month.” – bto: vielleicht genau mit der Absicht, Inflation zu erzeugen, um die Schulden zu entwerten? Zumindest wäre das im Gesamtkontext verständlich und konsequent.
  • Instead of a path to freedom, low rates are a trap. They encourage more borrowing and rising debt, which drags productivity lower and slows growth. That makes the economy financially fragile, forcing central banks to keep rates low. Given today’s very high levels of debt, only a small increase in interest rates would make the debt burden unsustainable.” – bto: Das führte zur Erkenntnis der BIZ führt, dass Zinsen morgen noch tiefer sein müssen, weil sie heute schon tief sind …
  • This ‘debt trap’ is, despite elite dismissals, a real issue. Public debts in the US and other developed countries averages about 110 per cent of GDP, up from 20 per cent in 1970, according to IMF data. During the Bretton Woods system, from 1945 to the early 1970s, many developed countries ran consistent budget surpluses. Since then they have run consistent deficits, in good times and bad.” – bto: Es war der Versuch der Politik, schwächeres Wachstum und Lohnwettbewerb aus China und Osteuropa mit Schulden zu kaschieren.
  • “Increasingly, the money printed by central banks goes to finance government debts. Many elites see this as fine, since it has yet to revive consumer price inflation. Though governments can print all the money they want, they cannot dictate where it goes, and much of it has stoked a different kind of inflation — asset price inflation. Since the 1970s, the size of financial markets has exploded from about the same size as the global economy to four times the size. Most of those gains go to the wealthy, who are the main owners of financial assets.” – bto: was dann von Leuten wie Piketty bemängelt wird, ohne die Ursache zu erkennen oder erkennen zu wollen.
  • “(…) average wealth in the past three decades has risen about 300 per cent for US families in the top 1 per cent, 200 per cent for the next 9 per cent, 100 per cent for the next 40 per cent, and zero per cent for the bottom 50 per cent. One out of 10 families in the bottom 50 per cent have negative wealth (they owe more than they own).” – bto: Eine Absenkung des Diskontierungszinses bei gleichzeitig steigendem Leverage muss zu einem Anstieg der Vermögenspreise führen, von dem überproportional jene profitieren, die diese Assets besitzen.
  • “(…) recent studies show that easy government money has ended up supporting the least productive companies, including heavily indebted ‘zombies’ that would otherwise fail. The support also favours monopolies that have expanded not because of their innovation but by lobbying governments for favours and sidelining smaller rivals. The OECD warned, in a 2017 study linking falling productivity to easy money, that these trends will make it harder for societies to deliver ‘on their promises to current and future generations.” – bto: Die Deckungslücke wird umso größer, je geringer das Produktivitätswachstum ist.
  • “BCA Research recently demonstrated that nations with big spending governments tend to suffer slower per capita GDP growth. Similarly, Ned Davis Research found that, since 1947, US government spending above 22 per cent of GDP is correlated with periods of slower economic growth. It warned that this share has risen above 34 per cent during the pandemic. My team also found a statistically significant link between periods of rising government debt and slow GDP growth. These studies cannot show causation, but the consistent link between growing deficits and weakening growth is unlikely to be coincidence.” – bto: Die Regierung springt dann ein, wenn die Privatwirtschaft Probleme hat. Dennoch ist der Trend zu geringerer Produktivität nicht zu übersehen.
  • “The average person understands that there is no free lunch. The path to prosperity cannot be so easy as to just print and spend. If he relies on low rates to fund further massive government spending increases, Mr Biden will double down on policies that have magnified the problems he aims to fix: weak growth, financial instability and rising inequality. Decades of constant stimulus have left capitalism weaker, less dynamic and less fair, fuelling angry populism. Deficits matter for the damage they are already inflicting.” – bto: Das Problem dabei ist, dass wir  in diesen Schulden gefangen sind und da nicht so einfach rauskommen, schon gar nicht durch ein Verlassen des Pfades. (Anmeldung erforderlich): “Dear Joe Biden, deficits still matter”, 20. Januar 2021