Das monetäre Endspiel läuft

High-net-worth individuals investing in ‘all that the government can’t print’“ – so beginnt der Kommentar zur aktuellen Lage, geschrieben wenige Tage nach der Invasion in der Ukraine. Wenig deutet darauf hin, dass es jetzt besser wird, eher noch schneller, schlechter:

  • Unorthodox monetary policies, the global inflation surge and a continued de facto debasement of fiat currencies are huge sources of nervousness for institutional and private investors. A big worrying factor has been the ratcheting-up of quantitative easing since the March 2020 Covid-19 outbreak. Many high-net-worth individuals tell fund managers in the Netherlands they want to invest only in ‘all that the government can’t print’.“ – bto: Die Niederländer sind durchaus gute Kaufleute.
  • In a few short years, central banks have gone from confronting a deflationary collapse to what may become an inflationary spiral. In view of the prices spike, central banks in the US, UK and continental Europe are raising rates or strongly considering the prospect.“ – bto: Das erscheint in Europa undenkbar. Ich will nicht ausschließen, dass es in den USA anders ist, die dortige Wirtschaft wird auch nicht so hart getroffen, wie die europäische.
  • As former Dutch central banker Lex Hoogduin has pointed out, high euro area debt means the European Central Bank ‘is trapped’ in its interest rate policies. Charles Goodhart of the London School of Economics, a former member of the Bank of England monetary policy committee, has been sounding similar warnings for years.“ – bto: natürlich. Und man muss auch kein Ökonom sein, um zu erkennen, was hier passiert.
  • Retired central bankers like Hoogduin and Goodhart tend to be much more critical of current monetary policies than their present-day counterparts. (…) The ECB rejects the claim but has yet to prove that its defence is watertight. The ECB is highly reluctant to raise rates from negative levels (…) As Christine Lagarde, ECB president, has been at pains to point out, tightening money probably won’t make much difference to the underlying inflation rate. Moreover, even if central banks raised interest rates by one or two percentage points, that wouldn’t be sufficient to change many institutional investors’ lower propensity to invest in bonds.“ – bto: Die EZB wird bis zum bitteren Ende das Gegenteil behaupten. Oder anders gesagt: Havenstein hat auch nur so viel Geld gedruckt, weil die Nachfrage danach so hoch war.
  • Central bankers have been monetising almost all net debt issuance since 2015. Covid-19 emergency liquidity supplied through QE has been three times larger than in 2009-11, after the collapse of Lehman Bros. Besides supporting treasury markets, some central banks have started buying corporate bonds, as well as large quantities of equities. Some 23% of the Swiss National Bank reserves are invested in listed equities – a big factor behind previous stock market buoyancy.“ – bto: Die Schweizer betreiben eine sehr gute Politik. Sie kaufen richtige Assets und bauen so praktisch einen Sovereign Wealth Fund auf. Ich denke, richtig problematisch wird es erst, wenn die EZB Aktien kauft.
  • Since the 2008 financial crisis, the world’s leading central banks have increased their balance sheets by around $26tn to $31tn. In the last 19 months, balance sheets grew by $14tn. The Eurosystem’s balance sheet (ECB and national central banks) has almost doubled to €8.5tn from €4.5tn in late 2019.“ – bto: In den letzten Monaten kam das Geld auch in der Wirtschaft an. Das ist der entscheidende Unterschied zu der Zeit nach der Finanzkrise.
  • The world’s fiat currency system has reached a dangerous juncture. History teaches that a strong inflationary process, once started, is very hard to stop. Over the last 300 years more than 100 fiat systems have disappeared, undermined by hyperinflation and other deficiencies. The failure of a fiat system should be considered a statistical certainty, rather than a theoretical improbability.“ – bto: In der Tat haben wir jetzt den perfekten Sturm, wie die Amerikaner sagen. Viel Brennholz liegt herum und das Feuer ist schon im Lager.
  • „(…) Paul Volcker, the former Fed chairman, remarked: ‘Inflation is a more fundamental danger than speculative investment. Some countries seem to be in the unusual situation where they are trying to create inflation. They will come to regret that.’ Raising rates strongly, as Volcker did in 1979-81, is now impossible because of high government debt.“ – bto: Damit bekommen wir einen massiven Inflationsschub.
  • „(…) central banks are trapped. As they try for an exit, central bankers may bring off a great escape. Equally, they may trigger a great monetary reset.“ – bto: Das monetäre Endspiel läuft. Siehe die zwei Beiträge dazu auf bto.

omfif.org: „Central banks’ inflation trap: heading for a great escape or great reset?“, 1. März 2022