Wie Neusee­land mit steigen­den Haus­preisen umgeht

In Neuseeland hat die Regierung die Notenbank angewiesen, etwas gegen die steigenden Immobilienpreise zu unternehmen. Richtig so, ist es doch die Geldpolitik und vor allem die Kredit-Geld-Schöpfung der Banken, die hinter den Vermögenspreisentwicklungen steht:

  • In 1989, New Zealand’s central bank was the first to commit to a specific target for consumer price inflation, then the biggest threat to the world economy. Unions and businesses howled, saying the move would kill growth and jobs. (…) By signalling the bank’s seriousness, the target helped to lower the public’s self-fulfilling expectation of endless price rises. Over two years, inflation fell from 8 to 2 per cent. (…) Soon, most central banks had adopted targets (…).“ – bto: Das ist das berühmte Vorreiterbeispiel. Wobei ich dazu sagen muss, dass es in der Zeit danach vor allem am China-Effekt gelegen haben dürfte, dass die Inflation so gering blieb trotz großer Geldmengenausweitung.  
  • Today, a new scourge — asset price inflation — looms. And New Zealand has launched another counterattack. While consumer prices have been held in check by globalisation and automation, easy money pouring out of central banks has been driving up the price of assets from stocks to bonds and housing. As homes are generally not counted as consumer goods, even sharp price spikes carry relatively little weight in central bank deliberations.“ – bto: Wir wissen aber, dass die Preisanstiege von Immobilien der entscheidende Grund ist, weshalb die Vermögen relativ zu den Einkommen so stark gestiegen sind. Also ein ganz einfacher Zusammenhang, den Piketty nicht versteht.
  • „(The New Zealand) government has ordered the central bank to add stabilising home prices to its remit, starting March 1. It is novel and healthy for a politician to recognise the unintended consequences of easy money.  If this idea catches on, it could lead to greater financial and social stability worldwide.“ – bto: Das sehe ich ganz genauso! Es ist doch so, dass beliebig vermehrbares Gut (Kreditgeld – ein knappes Gut – Immobilie) im Preis nach oben treiben muss.
  • Decades of loose central bank policy have done less to generate growth in the real economy than in the financial markets — and those gains benefit mainly the rich. This is widening wealth inequality, pushing homes beyond reach for the middle class, and not only in New Zealand. Of 502 international cities tracked by Numbeo, a research firm, prices are “unaffordable” (more than three times median family income) in more than 90 per cent.“ – bto: Es wird spannend sein, wie man die Blase aus den Bewertungen lässt, ohne die Märkte zum Einsturz zu bringen.
  • My research found that financial markets, fuelled by easy money, have grown since 1980 from about the same size as the global economy to four times as big. The larger markets loom, the larger the impact on the wider economy when they fall.  Research looking back 140 years in 17 major nations has shown that before the second world war, only one in four recessions followed a bubble in housing or stocks. But as banking, particularly mortgage lending, grew to assume a pivotal role in modern economies, the dynamics changed. Since the war, more than two out of every three recessions followed a housing or stock bubble.“ – bto: Unstrittig erhöhen diese Blasen und die damit im Zusammenhang stehenden Schulden die Krisenanfälligkeit des Systems.
  • Housing bubbles are the worst. The $220tn global housing market is more than twice the size of the global stock market and complicated by debt. When prices fall, it can take years to clean up failed mortgages, drawing out a recession. In general, recessions that follow debt-fuelled housing booms are the longest and deepest.“ – bto: Das macht die Bereinigung des Problems so problematisch.  
  • The challenge, to defuse bubbles before they become dangerous, is not as insurmountable as doubters believe. Research shows the key warning signs lie in the pace of increases in prices and debt. Policies need to keep up with changes in the global economy. A rethink is overdue, particularly among Ardern’s fellow progressives worldwide. They have come to embrace easy money as a way to finance social programmes, but need to recognise its negative impact on financial stability, wealth inequality and housing affordability.“ – bto: Das stimmt ebenfalls. Natürlich haben gerade die Politiker sich hinter dem einfachen Instrument billigen Geldes versteckt!

ft.com (Anmeldung erforderlich): „By targeting house prices, New Zealand shows the way“, 14. März 2021