Die Zinsen steigen und alles, was zinsabhängig ist, fällt. Im Fokus: die Immobilienmärkte. Der Economist fasst zusammen, welche Märkte am stärksten unter einer Zinserhöhung leiden:
- “For more than a decade homeowners benefited from ultra-low interest rates. Now, however, an interest-rate storm is gathering. (…) Investors expect the federal funds rate to rise above 3% by early 2023, more than triple its current level. Most other central banks in the rich world have also started pressing the monetary brakes, or are preparing to do so.” – bto: Es ist klar, dass steigende Zinsen einen negativen Effekt auf die Märkte haben müssen.
- “Many economists believe that a 2008-style global property crash is unlikely. Households’ finances have strengthened since the financial crisis, and lending standards are tighter. Scarce housing supply together with robust demand, high levels of net household wealth and strong labour markets should also support property prices. But the rising cost of money could make homeowners’ existing debt burdens difficult to manage by increasing their repayments, while putting off some prospective buyers. If that hit to demand is big enough, prices could start to fall.” – bto: Das mag sein. Aber wäre es nicht höchste Zeit, dass die Preise sich den Einkommen wieder annähern?
- “Homeowners’ vulnerability to sharp rises in mortgage payments varies by country. In Australia and New Zealand, where prices jumped by more than 20% last year, values have got so out of hand that they are sensitive to even modest rises in interest rates. In less torrid markets, such as America and Britain, interest rates may have to approach 4% for house prices to tank, reckons Capital Economics, a consultancy. Alongside price levels, however, three other factors will help determine whether the housing juggernaut simply slows, or comes crashing to a halt: the extent to which homeowners have mortgages, rather than own their properties outright; the prevalence of variable-rate mortgages, rather than fixed-rate loans; and the amount of debt taken on by households.” – bto: Das stimmt. Ich denke aber, es genügt nicht. Fallen die Preise deutlich wegen einiger hoch Verschuldeten, dann trifft das die Marktpreise, was wiederum jene mit geringeren Schulden belastet.
- “Denmark, Norway and Sweden have some of the world’s highest shares of mortgage-holders. A relaxation of lending standards in response to the pandemic turbocharged borrowing. In Sweden tax breaks for homeowners have further fuelled the rush to secure mortgages, while a dysfunctional rental market, characterised by overpriced (and illegal) subletting, has pushed more tenants into home ownership. All this puts Nordic banks in a tricky position. In Norway and Sweden housing loans make up more than a third of banks’ total assets. In Denmark they account for nearly 50% of lenders’ books. Sharp falls in house prices could trigger losses.” – bto: Das ist ein erhebliches Risiko, aber eben in einer Region, die nicht so relevant für die Weltwirtschaft ist.
- “Mortgage-free households are also more prevalent in southern Europe, notably Spain and Italy, where inheritance or family support is a common route to home ownership. Germans, for their part, are more likely to rent than own their homes.” – bto: Das wiederum ist auch keine gute Nachricht, wie wir wissen.
- “Rising interest rates will be felt almost instantly by borrowers on variable rates, which fluctuate with changes in policy rates; for those on fixed rates, the pain will be delayed. In America mortgage rates tend to be fixed for two or three decades. In Canada nearly half of home loans have rates that are set for five or more years. By contrast lending in Finland is almost entirely priced at floating rates. In Australia around four-fifths of mortgages are tied to variable rates.” – bto: Aus den Erfahrungen in den USA ist bekannt, dass kurze Finanzierung oder kurze Zinsbindung leicht zu Problemen führen kann.
- “Resilience to rising rates will also depend on the quantum of debt taken on by households. High indebtedness came into sharp focus during the global financial crisis. As house prices declined, households with towering mortgage repayments relative to their incomes found themselves squeezed. Today households are richer—but many are saddled with more debt than ever.
Watchdogs in Europe are equally worried. In February the European Systemic Risk Board warned of unsustainably high mortgage debt in Denmark, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden. In Australia, homeowners’ average debt as a share of income has swollen to 150%. In all these countries households will face jumbo monthly repayments just as soaring food and energy costs eat into incomes.” – bto: Das ist ein erhebliches Risiko für die Konjunktur und zeigt, wie Zinspolitik wirkt.
- “Property in America, which bore the brunt of the fallout from the subprime-lending crisis, appears better insulated than many large economies. Borrowers and lenders there have become more cautious since 2009, and fixed rates are much more popular. Housing markets in Britain and France will fare better in the short term but look exposed if rates rise further. Property in Germany and southern and eastern Europe appears less vulnerable still. By contrast, prices may be most sensitive to rate rises in Australia and New Zealand, Canada and the Nordics. (…) As the era of ultra-cheap money comes to an end, then, demand for housing is not about to collapse. Yet one way or another, renters and homeowners will face an intensifying squeeze.” – bto: Ich denke, mit höheren Nominalzinsen muss es zu realen Preisanpassungen kommen.