Warum die US-Börse “too big to fail” ist

Heute ein interessanter Kommentar des ehemaligen Chefvolkswirts von AllianceBernstein, der am besten mit seinem Fazit zusammengefasst ist:

“At today’s levels, the equity market is too big to fail without causing substantial damage to the economy that would be far greater than what happened after the tech bubble burst in 2000, since policymakers have far less capacity to reduce interest rates and real estate is unlikely to provide the same buffer for investors or the economy. – bto: Diese Aussage muss man sich auf der Zunge zergehen lassen. Wir haben uns massiv in eine Blase manövriert, die sich niemals entleeren darf, weil wir die realwirtschaftlichen Konsequenzen nicht tragen und die Notenbanken nicht mehr entsprechend gegensteuern können.

Begründet wird diese Aussage mit ein paar Datenpunkten:

  • “At today’s prices, the market value of publicly traded equities is estimated to be about $33tn, not far off the record high of $36tn recorded in the third quarter of 2018. Measured in relation to nominal GDP, the market value of equities stands at about 1.6 times. The record high of 1.7 times was reached twice before, in Q3 2018 and Q1 2000.” – bto: Das ist Warren Buffets Lieblingsindikator zur Bewertung der Börsen. Und der ist durchaus rot.
  • “Household holdings of equities, both directly and indirectly held, stand at almost $30tn, and represent the highest valued asset on household balance sheets. Equities account for 33 per cent of total household financial assets, topped only by the 37 per cent share recorded in 2000.” – bto: Auch das ist ein Warnsignal.
  • “The only other time equities exceeded real estate was in 1998-1999, which came on the heels of five consecutive years of 20 per cent to 30 per cent gains in the equity market.” – bto: Es passt alles zusammen: die hohe Verschuldung der Unternehmen und des gesamten Systems.
  • “The equity market has become an important driver of consumer and business confidence and is often viewed as the single most important ‘real time’ barometer of current and future economic conditions. Monetary policymakers often look at the equity market for a validation of their views on the economy and policy stance.” – bto: Auch das sind untrügliche Blasensignale!
  • “(…) after 10 years of gains risks are rising, especially since recent gains appear to be linked to the promise of easy money and not stronger corporate earnings. Policymakers have consistently argued that it is impossible to identify asset bubbles and the best defence against them is robust supervisory and regulatory oversight. That policy does not work in practice when the risks sit on the balance sheets of the private sector and easy money is part of the problem.” – bto: nicht “part”, sondern das Problem!

→ ft.com (Anmeldung erforderlich): “Is the equity bull market too big to fail?”, 19. März 2019