Heute Morgen hatten wir den positiven Fall: Die Staaten beginnen mit Schulden/helikopterfinanzierten Konjunkturprogrammen und die Kapitalmärkte reagieren entsprechend: Zyklische Aktien steigen, Zinsen steigen, „risikoarme“ Anlagen fallen. Doch ausgemacht ist das bekanntlich nicht. John Authers wirft in der FT einen anderen Blick auf die Märkte. Zunächst beschreibt er die Risiken und kommt zu dem Schluss, dass man diese ohnehin nicht bewerten könne. Er meinte damit den Ausgang von Wahlen, die Politik der Notenbanken und die Folgen des Terrors. Aber man könne ja noch auf die Fundamentaldaten schauen:
- „Corporate profits underpin the stock market directly – it is a company’s stream of earnings that we purchase when we buy a stock – and are a driving component of economic growth. They matter.“ – bto: vergisst man angesichts der Notenbankpolitik fast völlig …
- „And that is a shame, because profits look terrible, particularly in Europe. For the companies in the Stoxx 600 index to have reported so far, profits are down an appalling 11.3 per cent compared to the second quarter of last year, according to Thomson Reuters. It is a broad fall, with only three sectors – cyclicals, healthcare and utilities – avoiding losses.“
- „As for the US, with about three-quarters of companies having reported, the Thomson Reuters tally shows companies on course for an average decline in earnings of 2.8 per cent, the fourth consecutive quarter of falling profits, on the back of revenues very slightly lower than they were a year earlier.“
- „Anaemic corporate performance such as this does not sound like the stuff of which stock market records are made.“
- Oder ist es ein Wendepunkt? „A fall of ‚only‘ 2.8 per cent represents an improvement after four successive quarters in which the rate of change worsened. It is thus just about possible to read this as an inflection point, and Wall Street brokers cheerfully expect profit growth to be back in double figures next year.“
- „If earnings do not revive on cue, the US stock market might put in another long period without a new high. With such uncertainty in the air, there could be some turbulent times ahead after the summer.“
Das scheint auch GoldmanSachs so zu sehen, wie Zero Hedge meldet:
- „Here is the reasoning behind Goldman’s creeping sense of gloom:
- The rally in risky assets over the past few weeks has continued and broadened – the S&P 500 has made all-time highs, the VIX has fallen, bonds and ‘safe havens’ started to sell off, and cyclicals have outperformed defensives.
- We think a key driver of the recovery has been a combination of the light positioning into Brexit and the search for yield amid expectations of easing.
- However, given equities remain expensive and earnings growth is poor, in our view equities are now just at the upper end of their ‘fat and flat’ range.
- Our risk appetite indicator is near neutral levels and its positive momentum has faded, suggesting positioning will give less support and we will need better macro fundamentals or stimulus to keep the risk rally going, but market expectations are already dovish and growth pick-up should take time.
- As a result, we downgrade equities tactically to Underweight over 3 months, but remain Neutral over 12 months. We remain Overweight cash and would look for resets lower in equities to add positions.“
– bto: Das ist natürlich keine Crash-Warnung, sondern nur die Aussage, dass die Märkte nur wenig Potenzial nach oben haben.
- „We remain Overweight cash over 3 months to benefit from a pick-up in volatility and look for opportunities to re-enter upon pullbacks in equity, as we remain Neutral over 12 months. We think the negative asymmetry for risky assets and for bonds could require more aggressive risk management. We highlight the following cross-asset opportunities:
- Call-overwriting across indices.
- Short-dated S&P 500 options: Long OTM calls for investors worried about a squeeze higher, long puts for hedges.
- Long-dated Nikkei vol.
- Long gold vol.
- Long MSCI EM puts to hedge positions.“
Und zum Schluss noch dieses Chart:
„Over the past half-century, we have never seen a decline in earnings of this magnitude without at least a 20 % fall in stock prices, a hurdle many use to define a bear market.“